Updated on 2025/03/17

Information

 

写真a

 
MOCHIZUKI TAKASHI
 
Organization
Faculty of Science Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Associate Professor
International Center for Space and Planetary Environmental Science (Concurrent)
School of Sciences Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences(Concurrent)
Graduate School of Sciences Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences(Concurrent)
Title
Associate Professor
Contact information
メールアドレス
Tel
0928024223
Profile
近い将来の気候の的確な予測に向けて、大気と海洋がお互いに影響しあいながら起こる気候変動のメカニズムや予測可能性に関する研究を実施している。また、関連分野で学部生、大学院生を対象とした教育を実施している。
External link

Degree

  • Doctor of Science (Kyoto University)

Research Interests・Research Keywords

  • Research theme: Climate extremes and global climate variability

    Keyword: cliamte extreme, atmosphere ocean coupling, decadal modulation

    Research period: 2019.7

  • Research theme: Seasonal to decadal climate variability

    Keyword: atmosphere-ocean interaction, interbasin variability, multiscale interaction, partial data assimilation

    Research period: 2013.2

  • Research theme: Decadal climate prediction and predictability

    Keyword: coupled climate model, initialization, atmosphere-ocean interaction, decadal variability, global warming

    Research period: 2007.4

  • Research theme: Atmosphere-ocean coupled data assimilation

    Keyword: data assimilation, 4D-Var, coupled climate model, seasonal to decadal (S2D) variability

    Research period: 2003.4

Awards

  • JMSJ Award in 2013

    2014.5   日本気象学会  

Papers

  • Breakdown and recovery of the eyewall of Super Typhoon Rai (2021) crossing the Philippine Islands Reviewed

    Yuki Nakamura, Ryuichi Kawamura, Tetsuya Kawano, Takashi Mochizuki

    Weather and Climate Extremes   2025.3

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100763

  • Dominant contribution of Arctic sea ice cover to the bimodally interannual variation of the polar night jet in late November Reviewed

    Yuta Ando, Takashi Mochizuki

    Journal of Oceanography   2025.2

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1007/s10872-025-00749-9

  • A triggering mechanism of quasi-stationary convective bands in the vicinity of southwestern Japan during the summer season as deduced from moisture origins Reviewed

    Haruka Nishimura, Ryuichi Kawamura, Xiaoyang Li, Tetsuya Kawano, Takashi Mochizuki, Kimpei Ichiyanagi, Kei Yoshimura

    Atmospheric Research   308   107544   2024.10

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107544

  • Increasing WNP tropical cyclone-related extreme precipitation over East Asia during boreal summer associated with PDO shift Reviewed

    Jiwei Wu, Ryuichi Kawamura, Takashi Mochizuki, Tetsuya Kawano

    Weather and Climate Extremes   100714   2024.8

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100714

  • Interannual fluctuations and their low-frequency modulation of summertime heavy daily rainfall potential in western Japan Reviewed International journal

    Mochizuki, T.

    Atmosphere   15 ( 7 )   814   2024.7

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.3390/atmos15070814

  • Multi-year potential predictability of the wintertime heavy precipitation potentials in East Asia Reviewed International journal

    Mochizuki, T.

    Geophysical Research Letters   2024.6

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1029/2024GL108312

  • Interdecadal variations of radiative feedbacks associated with the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in CMIP6 models Reviewed International journal

    Tsuchida, K., T. Mochizuki, R. Kawamura, T. Kawano

    Geophysical Research Letters   2023.11

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1029/2023GL106127

  • Diversity of lagged relationships in global means of surface temperatures and radiative budgets for CMIP6 piControl simulations Reviewed International journal

    Tsuchida, K., T. Mochizuki, R. Kawamura, T. Kawano, Y. Kamae

    Journal of Climate   2023.10

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0045.1

  • Decadal modulation of ENSO and IOD impacts on the Indian Ocean upwelling Reviewed International journal

    Zhang, X., T. Mochizuki

    Frontiers in Earth Science   2023.8

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.3389/feart.2023.1212421

  • Remote dynamic and thermodynamic effects of typhoons on Meiyu–Baiu precipitation in Japan assessed with bogus typhoon experiments Reviewed International journal

    Yoshida, N., R. Kawamura, T. Kawano, T. Mochizuki, S. Iizuka

    Weather and Climate Extremes   2023.5

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100578

  • A Projection of Future JPCZs by WRF Dynamical Downscaling Simulations based on MIROC6 ScenarioMIP ssp585 Reviewed International journal

    Kawano, T., R. Yasukiyo, R. Kawamura, T. Mochizuki

    Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere   2023.5

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.2151/sola. 2023-014

  • Sea surface height fluctuations relevant to Indian summer monsoon over the northwestern Indian Ocean Reviewed International journal

    Zhang, X., T. Mochizuki

    Frontiers in Climate   2022.11

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2022.1008776

  • Atlantic impacts on subdecadal warming over the tropical Pacific in the 2000s Reviewed International journal

    Mochizuki, T., M. Watanabe

    Frontiers in Climate   2022.11

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2022.1040352

  • Cascading effects of the Changbai Mountains on an extreme weather disaster in northern Japan in January 2021 Reviewed International journal

    Suzuki, Y., R. Kawamura, T. Kawano, T. Mochizuki

    Weather and Climate Extremes   36   2022.4

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100439

  • El Niño-Southern Oscillation Evolution Modulated by Atlantic Forcing International journal

    Chikamoto, Y., Z. F. Johnson, S.-Y. Wang, M. J. McPhaden, T. Mochizuki

    CLIVAR Exchanges   80   12 - 15   2021.8

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (international conference proceedings)  

    DOI: 10.36071/clivar.80.2021

  • Seasonal to decadal predictions with MIROC6: Description and basic evaluation Reviewed International journal

    Kataoka, T., T. Tatebe, H. Koyama, T. Mochizuki, K. Ogochi, H. Naoe, Y. Imada, H. Shiogama, M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe

    Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems   2020.10

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1029/2019MS002035

  • North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply Reviewed International journal

    Smith, D. M., A. A. Scaife, R. Eade, P. Athanasiadis, A. Bellucci, I. Bethke, R. Bilbao, L. F. Borchert, L.-P. Caron, F. Counillon, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. J. Dunstone, V. Estella-Perez, S. Flavoni, L. Hermanson, N. Keenlyside, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W. J. Merryfield, J. Mignot, T. Mochizuki, K. Modali, P.-A. Monerie, W. A. Muller, D. Nicoli, P. Ortega, K. Pankatz, H. Pohlmann, J. Robson, P. Ruggieri, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, D. Swingedouw, Y. Wang, S. Wild, S. Yeager, X. Yang, L. Zhang

    Nature   583   796 - 800   2020.7

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0

  • El Nino Southern Oscillation evolution modulated by the Atlantic forcing Reviewed International journal

    Chikamoto, Y., Z. F. Johnson, S.-Y. Wang, M. J. McPhaden, T. Mochizuki

    Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans   2020.7

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1029/2020JC016318

  • Pacific Decadal Oscillation remotely forced by the equatorial Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans Reviewed International journal

    Johnson, Z. F., Y. Chikamoto, S.-Y. Wang, M. J. McPhaden, T. Mochizuki

    Climate Dynamics   55   789 - 811   2020.6

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05295-2

  • On the Mechanisms of the Active 2018 Tropical Cyclone Season in the North Pacific Reviewed

    Y. Qian, H. Murakami, M. Nakano, P. C. Hsu, T. L. Delworth, S. B. Kapnick, V. Ramaswamy, T. Mochizuki, Y. Morioka, T. Doi, T. Kataoka, T. Nasuno, K. Yoshida

    Geophysical Research Letters   46 ( 21 )   12293 - 12302   2019.11

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    The 2018 tropical cyclone (TC) season in the North Pacific was very active, with 39 tropical storms including eight typhoons/hurricanes. This activity was successfully predicted up to 5 months in advance by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) global coupled model. In this work, a suite of idealized experiments with three dynamical global models (FLOR, Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model, and Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model) was used to show that the active 2018 TC season was primarily caused by warming in the subtropical Pacific and secondarily by warming in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, the potential effect of anthropogenic forcing on the active 2018 TC season was investigated using two of the global models (FLOR and Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model). The models projected opposite signs for the changes in TC frequency in the North Pacific by an increase in anthropogenic forcing, thereby highlighting the substantial uncertainty and model dependence in the possible impact of anthropogenic forcing on Pacific TC activity.

    DOI: 10.1029/2019GL084566

  • Description and basic evaluation of simulated mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6 Reviewed International journal

    Hiroaki Tatebe, Tomoo Ogura, Tomoko Nitta, Yoshiki Komuro, Koji Ogochi, Toshihiko Takemura, Kengo Sudo, Miho Sekiguchi, Manabu Abe, Fuyuki Saito, Minoru Chikira, Shingo Watanabe, Masato Mori, Nagio Hirota, Yoshio Kawatani, Takashi Mochizuki, Kei Yoshimura, Kumiko Takata, Ryouta O'Ishi, Dai Yamazaki, Tatsuo Suzuki, Masao Kurogi, Takahito Kataoka, Masahiro Watanabe, Masahide Kimoto

    Geoscientific Model Development   12 ( 7 )   2727 - 2765   2019.7

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    The sixth version of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), called MIROC6, was cooperatively developed by a Japanese modeling community. In the present paper, simulated mean climate, internal climate variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6 are evaluated and briefly summarized in comparison with the previous version of our climate model (MIROC5) and observations. The results show that the overall reproducibility of mean climate and internal climate variability in MIROC6 is better than that in MIROC5. The tropical climate systems (e.g., summertime precipitation in the western Pacific and the eastward-propagating Madden-Julian oscillation) and the midlatitude atmospheric circulation (e.g., the westerlies, the polar night jet, and troposphere-stratosphere interactions) are significantly improved in MIROC6. These improvements can be attributed to the newly implemented parameterization for shallow convective processes and to the inclusion of the stratosphere. While there are significant differences in climates and variabilities between the two models, the effective climate sensitivity of 2.6K remains the same because the differences in radiative forcing and climate feedback tend to offset each other. With an aim towards contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, designated simulations tackling a wide range of climate science issues, as well as seasonal to decadal climate predictions and future climate projections, are currently ongoing using MIROC6.

    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019

  • Robust skill of decadal climate predictions Reviewed International journal

    D. M. Smith, R. Eade, A. A. Scaife, L.-P. Caron, T. M. Delsole, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. J. Dunstone, L. Hermanson, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W. J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W. A. Muller, H. Pohlmann, S. Yeager, X. Yang

    npj Climate and Atmospheric Science   2 ( 13 )   2019.5

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1038/s41612-019-0071-y

  • Observed and hindcasted subdecadal variability of the tropical Pacific climate Reviewed International journal

    Takashi Mochizuki, Masahiro Watanabe

    ICES Journal of Marine Science   2019.2

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsz026

  • Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C Reviewed

    D. M. Smith, A. A. Scaife, E. Hawkins, R. Bilbao, G. J. Boer, M. Caian, L. P. Caron, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, R. Doescher, N. J. Dunstone, R. Eade, L. Hermanson, M. Ishii, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, T. Koenigk, Y. Kushnir, D. Matei, G. A. Meehl, M. Menegoz, W. J. Merryfield, Takashi Mochizuki, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Power, M. Rixen, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, M. Tuma, K. Wyser, X. Yang, S. Yeager

    Geophysical Research Letters   45 ( 21 )   11,895 - 11,903   2018.11

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    The Paris Agreement calls for efforts to limit anthropogenic global warming to less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. However, natural internal variability may exacerbate anthropogenic warming to produce temporary excursions above 1.5 °C. Such excursions would not necessarily exceed the Paris Agreement, but would provide a warning that the threshold is being approached. Here we develop a new capability to predict the probability that global temperature will exceed 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels in the coming 5 years. For the period 2017 to 2021 we predict a 38% and 10% chance, respectively, of monthly or yearly temperatures exceeding 1.5 °C, with virtually no chance of the 5-year mean being above the threshold. Our forecasts will be updated annually to provide policy makers with advanced warning of the evolving probability and duration of future warming events.

    DOI: 10.1029/2018GL079362

  • Ocean impacts on Australian interannual to decadal precipitation variability Reviewed

    Zachary F. Johnson, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Jing Jia Luo, Takashi Mochizuki

    Climate   6 ( 3 )   2018.9

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    In Australia, successful seasonal predictions of wet and dry conditions are achieved by utilizing the remote impact of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in tropical oceans, particularly the Pacific Ocean, on the seasonal timescale. Beyond seasonal timescales, however, it is still unclear which processes and oceans contribute to interannual-to-decadal wet/dry conditions in Australia. This research examines the interannual-to-decadal relationship between global SST anomalies (SSTAs) and Australian wet/dry variability by analyzing observational data and global climate model experiments conducted with the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC). A 10-member ensemble simulation suite for 1960-2015 (CESM) and 1950-2010 (MIROC) is conducted by assimilating the observed three-dimensional ocean temperature and salinity anomalies into fully coupled global climate models. In both observational analyses and ocean assimilation experiments, the most dominant annual mean precipitation variability shows a clear relationship with SSTAs in the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic. Our partial ocean assimilation experiment, in which the ocean component of the CESM and MIROC are assimilated by the observed ocean temperature and salinity anomalies in the equatorial Pacific only, shows that the tropical Pacific SST variability is the main driver of Australian precipitation variability on the interannual-to-decadal timescales. However, our additional partial ocean assimilation experiment, in which the climate models incorporate the observed anomalies solely in the Atlantic ocean, demonstrates that the Atlantic Ocean can also affect Australian precipitation variability on the interannual-to-decadal timescale through changes in tropical Pacific SSTAs and the modulation of the globalWalker circulation. Our results suggest that about a half of Australian interannual-to-decadal precipitation variability originates from the Atlantic Ocean.

    DOI: 10.3390/cli6030061

  • Tropical Atlantic-Korea teleconnection pattern during boreal summer season Reviewed

    Yoo Geun Ham, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Jong Seong Kug, Masahide Kimoto, Takashi Mochizuki

    Climate Dynamics   49 ( 7-8 )   2649 - 2664   2017.10

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    The remote impact of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability on Korean summer precipitation is examined based on observational data analysis along with the idealized and hindcast model experiments. Observations show a significant correlation (i.e. 0.64) between Korean precipitation anomalies (averaged over 120–130°E, 35–40°N) and the tropical Atlantic SST index (averaged over 60°W–20°E, 30°S–30°N) during the June–July–August (JJA) season for the 1979–2010 period. Our observational analysis and partial-data assimilation experiments using the coupled general circulation model demonstrate that tropical Atlantic SST warming induces the equatorial low-level easterly over the western Pacific through a reorganization of the global Walker Circulation, causing a decreased precipitation over the off-equatorial western Pacific. As a Gill-type response to this diabatic forcing, an anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation appears over the Philippine Sea, which transports wet air from the tropics to East Asia through low-level southerly, resulting an enhanced precipitation in the Korean peninsula. Multi-model hindcast experiments also show that predictive skills of Korean summer precipitation are improved by utilizing predictions of tropical Atlantic SST anomalies as a predictor for Korean precipitation anomalies.

    DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3474-z

  • Impact of in-consistency between the climate model and its initial conditions on climate prediction Reviewed

    Xueyuan Liu, Armin Köhl, Detlef Stammer, Shuhei Masuda, Yoichi Ishikawa, Takashi Mochizuki

    Climate Dynamics   49 ( 3 )   1061 - 1075   2017.8

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    We investigated the influence of dynamical in-consistency of initial conditions on the predictive skill of decadal climate predictions. The investigation builds on the fully coupled global model “Coupled GCM for Earth Simulator” (CFES). In two separate experiments, the ocean component of the coupled model is full-field initialized with two different initial fields from either the same coupled model CFES or the GECCO2 Ocean Synthesis while the atmosphere is initialized from CFES in both cases. Differences between both experiments show that higher SST forecast skill is obtained when initializing with coupled data assimilation initial conditions (CIH) instead of those from GECCO2 (GIH), with the most significant difference in skill obtained over the tropical Pacific at lead year one. High predictive skill of SST over the tropical Pacific seen in CIH reflects the good reproduction of El Niño events at lead year one. In contrast, GIH produces additional erroneous El Niño events. The tropical Pacific skill differences between both runs can be rationalized in terms of the zonal momentum balance between the wind stress and pressure gradient force, which characterizes the upper equatorial Pacific. In GIH, the differences between the oceanic and atmospheric state at initial time leads to imbalance between the zonal wind stress and pressure gradient force over the equatorial Pacific, which leads to the additional pseudo El Niño events and explains reduced predictive skill. The balance can be reestablished if anomaly initialization strategy is applied with GECCO2 initial conditions and improved predictive skill in the tropical Pacific is observed at lead year one. However, initializing the coupled model with self-consistent initial conditions leads to the highest skill of climate prediction in the tropical Pacific by preserving the momentum balance between zonal wind stress and pressure gradient force along the equatorial Pacific.

    DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3194-4

  • Interbasin effects of the Indian Ocean on Pacific decadal climate change Reviewed

    Takashi Mochizuki, Masahide Kimoto, Masahiro Watanabe, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Masayoshi Ishii

    Geophysical Research Letters   43 ( 13 )   7168 - 7175   2016.7

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    DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069940

  • Potential tropical Atlantic impacts on Pacific decadal climate trends Reviewed

    Y. Chikamoto, Takashi Mochizuki, A. Timmermann, M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe

    Geophysical Research Letters   43 ( 13 )   7143 - 7151   2016.7

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    The tropical Pacific cooling from the early 1990s to 2013 has contributed to the slowdown of globally averaged sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The origin of this regional cooling trend still remains elusive. Here we demonstrate that the remote impact of Atlantic SST anomalies, as well as local atmosphere-ocean interactions, contributed to the eastern Pacific cooling during this period. By assimilating observed three-dimensional Atlantic temperature and salinity anomalies into a coupled general circulation model, we are able to qualitatively reproduce the observed Pacific decadal trends of SST and sea level pressure (SLP), albeit with reduced amplitude. Although a major part of the Pacific SLP trend can be explained by equatorial Pacific SST forcing only, the origin of this low-frequency variability can be traced back further to the remote impacts of equatorial Atlantic and South Atlantic SST trends. Atlantic SST impacts on the atmospheric circulation can also be detected for the Northeastern Pacific, thus providing a linkage between Atlantic climate and Western North American drought conditions.

    DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069544

  • Multiyear climate prediction with initialization based on 4D-Var data assimilation Reviewed

    Takashi Mochizuki, Shuhei Masuda, Yoichi Ishikawa, Toshiyuki Awaji

    Geophysical Research Letters   43 ( 8 )   3903 - 3910   2016.4

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    DOI: 10.1002/2016GL067895

  • 気候モデルの部分同化実験による大洋間相互作用研究

    望月崇

    月刊海洋   48   220 - 226   2016

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    Authorship:Lead author   Language:Japanese  

  • A new Approach to El Niño Prediction beyond the Spring Season Reviewed

    Shuhei Masuda, John Philip Matthews, Yoichi Ishikawa, Takashi Mochizuki, Yuusuke Tanaka, Toshiyuki Awaji

    Scientific reports   5   2015.11

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    The enormous societal importance of accurate El Niño forecasts has long been recognized. Nonetheless, our predictive capabilities were once more shown to be inadequate in 2014 when an El Nino event was widely predicted by international climate centers but failed to materialize. This result highlighted the problem of the opaque spring persistence barrier, which severely restricts longer-term, accurate forecasting beyond boreal spring. Here we show that the role played by tropical seasonality in the evolution of the El Niño is changing on pentadal (five-year) to decadal timescales and thus that El Niño predictions beyond boreal spring will inevitably be uncertain if this change is neglected. To address this problem, our new coupled climate simulation incorporates these long-term influences directly and generates accurate hindcasts for the 7 major historical El Niños. The error value between predicted and observed sea surface temperature (SST) in a specific tropical region (5°N-5°S and 170°-120°W) can consequently be reduced by 0.6 Kelvin for one-year predictions. This correction is substantial since an "El Niño" is confirmed when the SST anomaly becomes greater than +0.5 Kelvin. Our 2014 forecast is in line with the observed development of the tropical climate.

    DOI: 10.1038/srep16782

  • Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability Reviewed

    Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Axel Timmermann, Jing Jia Luo, Takashi Mochizuki, Masahide Kimoto, Masahiro Watanabe, Masayoshi Ishii, Shang Ping Xie, Fei Fei Jin

    Nature communications   6   2015.4

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    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms7869

  • Error sensitivity to initial climate states in pacific decadal hindcasts Reviewed

    Takashi Mochizuki, Masahide Kimoto, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Masato Mori, Masahiro Watanabe, Masayoshi Ishii

    Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere   10 ( 1 )   39 - 44   2014.1

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    We perform decadal hindcast experiments with initialization every year and assess sensitivity of the hindcasted errors to the errors in the initial climate states. The hindcasted sea surface temperature (SST) over the extratropical North Pacific shows significant impacts of initialization, yet the hindcasted indices of the Pacific decadal variability usually suffer from limited predictability. Our sensitivity analyses reveal that, in the decadal SST hindcasts over the extratropical North Pacific, the annual-todecadal errors of the Aleutian Low fluctuation before the time of starting hindcast experiments work as a major source of uncertainty through delayed responses of the ocean. As we directly assimilate only the ocean states to the atmosphere-ocean coupled model in initialization, the Aleutian Low fluctuation in the assimilation exhibits large errors even though the SST is well correlated with the observation. These assimilation errors in the Aleutian Low fluctuation are primarily due to the distorted responses of the extratropical atmosphere to the tropical SST changes in the model. A close examination indicates that the observed and assimilated Aleutian Lows are sensitive to the eastern and central equatorial SSTs, respectively. Toward further reducing uncertainty in the Pacific decadal hindcasts, therefore, it should be an effective way to raise quality of initial conditions for the extratropical atmosphere and the tropical atmosphere-ocean coupling.

    DOI: 10.2151/sola.2014-009

  • Hindcast prediction and near-future projection of tropical cyclone activity over the Western North Pacific using CMIP5 near-term experiments with MIROC Reviewed

    Masato Mori, Masahide Kimoto, Masayoshi Ishii, Satoru Yokoi, Takashi Mochizuki, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Masahiro Watanabe, Toru Nozawa, Hiroaki Tatebe, Takashi T. Sakamoto, Yoshiki Komuro, Yukiko Imada, Hiroshi Koyama

    Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan   91 ( 4 )   431 - 452   2013.9

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    In line with the experimental design for near-term climate prediction toward the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we perform ensembles of initialized decadal hindcast and near-future projection using three versions of the coupled atmosphere-ocean model MIROC. In the present study, we explore interannual and multiyear predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) using the initialized hindcasts and examine global warming impacts on TC activity in the near-future on the basis of near-future projections up to 2035. The hindcasts of year-to-year variation in TC number capture the observed values reasonably well. Moreover, interannual variability of TC genesis and occurrence frequency associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation are found to be predictable, mainly through better prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) and large-scale vorticity anomalies in the lower troposphere. These results indicate that the models can reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link TC genesis with large-scale circulation. Skillful prediction of TC number is likely difficult on multiyear timescales, at least based on our hindcasts, but through initializations, the three-year-mean hindcasts from 1998 onward reasonably capture observed major characteristics of TC activity associated with Pacific climate shift during the late 1990s. Near-future projections (2016-2035) suggest significant reductions (approximately 14%) in TC number, particularly over the western part of the WNP, even under scenarios in which projected global warming is less prominent than that at the end of this century. This reduction is likely due to the suppression of large-scale lower tropospheric vorticity and relative humidity and the enhancement of vertical wind shear. The projected SST exhibits a more pronounced warming over the eastern tropical Pacific than over the western region and accompanies the weakening of Walker circulation via redistribution of tropical convection activity, which appears to be responsible for the change in the large-scale fields in the WNP.

    DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.2013-402

  • Strengthening of ocean heat uptake efficiency associated with the recent climate hiatus Reviewed

    Masahiro Watanabe, Youichi Kamae, Masakazu Yoshimori, Akira Oka, Makiko Sato, Masayoshi Ishii, Takashi Mochizuki, Masahide Kimoto

    Geophysical Research Letters   40 ( 12 )   3175 - 3179   2013.6

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    The rate of increase of global-mean surface air temperature (SAT
    g
    ) has apparently slowed during the last decade. We investigated the extent to which state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) can capture this hiatus period by using multimodel ensembles of historical climate simulations. While the SAT
    g
    linear trend for the last decade is not captured by their ensemble means regardless of differences in model generation and external forcing, it is barely represented by an 11-member ensemble of a GCM, suggesting an internal origin of the hiatus associated with active heat uptake by the oceans. Besides, we found opposite changes in ocean heat uptake efficiency (κ), weakening in models and strengthening in nature, which explain why the models tend to overestimate the SAT
    g
    trend. The weakening of κ commonly found in GCMs seems to be an inevitable response of the climate system to global warming, suggesting the recovery from hiatus in coming decades. Key Points Global-mean SAT trend for 2001-2010 is barely represented by GCM ensembles Ocean heat uptake efficiency is weakening in GCMs and strengthening in nature Weakening of uptake efficiency is inevitable response of forced climate system

    DOI: 10.1002/grl.50541

  • Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction Reviewed

    F. J. Doblas-Reyes, I. Andreu-Burillo, Y. Chikamoto, J. García-Serrano, V. Guemas, M. Kimoto, Takashi Mochizuki, L. R.L. Rodrigues, G. J. Van Oldenborgh

    Nature communications   4   2013.5

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    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms2704

  • An overview of decadal climate predictability in a multi-model ensemble by climate model MIROC Reviewed

    Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Masahide Kimoto, Masayoshi Ishii, Takashi Mochizuki, Takashi T. Sakamoto, Hiroaki Tatebe, Yoshiki Komuro, Masahiro Watanabe, Toru Nozawa, Hideo Shiogama, Masato Mori, Sayaka Yasunaka, Yukiko Imada

    Climate Dynamics   40 ( 5-6 )   1201 - 1222   2013.1

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    Decadal climate predictability is examined in hindcast experiments by a multi-model ensemble using three versions of the coupled atmosphere-ocean model MIROC. In these hindcast experiments, initial conditions are obtained from an anomaly assimilation procedure using the observed oceanic temperature and salinity with prescribed natural and anthropogenic forcings on the basis of the historical data and future emission scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Results of the multi-model ensemble in our hindcast experiments show that predictability of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies on decadal timescales mostly originates from externally forced variability. Although the predictable component of internally generated variability has considerably smaller SAT variance than that of externally forced variability, ocean subsurface temperature variability has predictive skills over almost a decade, particularly in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic where dominant signals associated with Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) are observed. Initialization enhances the predictive skills of AMO and PDO indices and slightly improves those of global mean temperature anomalies. Improvement of these predictive skills in the multi-model ensemble is higher than that in a single-model ensemble.

    DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1351-y

  • Relationship between the Pacific and Atlantic stepwise climate change during the 1990s Reviewed

    Y. Chikamoto, M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe, M. Ishii, Takashi Mochizuki

    Geophysical Research Letters   39 ( 21 )   2012.11

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    A linkage between climate change in the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans during the 1990s is investigated using three versions of the coupled climate model MIROC and CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. From the early 1990s to the early 2000s, the observed sea surface temperature (SST) shows warming in the North Atlantic and a La Nia-like pattern in the Pacific. Associated with the SST pattern, the observations indicate a strengthened Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific and enhanced precipitation in the tropical Atlantic. These SST and precipitation patterns are simulated well by hindcast experiments with external forcing and an initialized ocean anomaly state but are poorly simulated by uninitialized simulation with external forcing only. In particular, the observed La Nia-like SST pattern becomes prominent in ensemble members with large amplitudes of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index during 1996-1998. Our results suggest that ocean initialization in both the Pacific and the Atlantic plays an important role in predicting the Pacific stepwise climate change during the 1990s, which contributes to the accurate estimation of global temperature change in the coming decade. Forecasting typhoon frequency or marine fisheries production in the coming decade may be possible by improving the predictive skill of stepwise climate change.

    DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053901

  • Decadal prediction using a recent series of MIROC global climate models Reviewed

    Takashi Mochizuki, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Masahide Kimoto, Masayoshi Ishii, Hiroaki Tatebe, Yoshiki Komuro, Takashi T. Sakamoto, Masahiro Watanabe, Masato Mori

    Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan   90 ( A )   373 - 383   2012.7

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    DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.2012-A22

  • The initialization of the MIROC climate models with hydrographic data assimilation for decadal prediction Reviewed

    Hiroaki Tatebe, Masayoshi Ishii, Takashi Mochizuki, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Takashi T. Sakamoto, Yoshiki Komuro, Masato Mori, Sayaka Yasunaka, Masahiro Watanabe, Koji Ogochi, Tatsuo Suzuki, Teruyuki Nishimura, Masahide Kimoto

    Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan   90 ( A )   275 - 294   2012.7

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    This paper documents the procedure of ocean data assimilation that initializes the climate models MIROC3m, MIROC4h, and MIROC5 for decadal climate predictions following the CMIP5 protocol, and summarizes the performance of the climate models using this data assimilation. Only anomalies of observed ocean hydrographic data are assimilated using the incremental analysis update method in order to prevent model climate drifts during predictions. In the case of MIROC4h, which has an eddy-permitting ocean model, a spatial smoother is used in calculating analysis increments so that oceanic mesoscale eddies cannot be damped by observational constraints and that they are generated and decay physically in response to the assimilated background state. Globally, the decadal-scale variations of ocean temperatures in the assimilation runs are highly correlated with the observations. Variations of surface air temperature over oceans are also consistent with the observations, but this is not the case in some regions over continents. Atmospheric responses to the SST variations corresponding to the Pacific Decadal Oscillations and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation are better represented in MIROC4h and MIROC5 than in MIROC3m. The high resolution of MIROC4h and new cloud parameterizations in MIROC5 may contribute to this improvement. Root-mean-squared amplitudes of sea surface height variations associated with oceanic eddies (hereafter, eddy activity) are not suppressed undesirably in the MIROC4h assimilation run and these are comparable with those in the uninitialized runs. In the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence zone, eddy activity is modulated on a decadal timescale. This modulation is reasonably represented in the assimilation run compared with the observations. In the hindcast experiments, significant decadal prediction skills are found for the North Atlantic, the subtropical North Pacific, and the Indian Ocean. The decadal climate predictions are expected to contribute to the IPCC AR5 and political decision-making for the coming decades.

    DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.2012-A14

  • Predictability of a stepwise shift in Pacific climate during the late 1990s in hindcast experiments using MIROC Reviewed

    Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Masahide Kimoto, Masayoshi Ishii, Masahiro Watanabe, Toru Nozawa, Takashi Mochizuki, Hiroaki Tatebe, Takashi T. Sakamoto, Yoshiki Komuro, Hideo Shiogama, Masato Mori, Sayaka Yasunaka, Yukiko Imada, Hiroshi Koyama, Masato Nozu, Fei Fei Jin

    Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan   90 ( A )   1 - 21   2012.7

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    Sea surface temperature (SST) predictability in the Pacific on decadal timescales is examined in hindcast experiments using the coupled atmosphere-ocean model MIROC with low, medium, and high resolutions. In these hindcast experiments, initial conditions are obtained from an anomaly assimilation procedure using the observed oceanic temperature and salinity while prescribing natural and anthropogenic forcing based on the IPCC concentration scenarios. Our hindcast experiments show the predictability of SST in the western subtropical Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the tropics to the North Atlantic. Previous studies have examined the SST predictability in the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic, but SST predictability in the western subtropical Pacific has not been evaluated. In the western Pacific, the observed SST anomalies in the subtropics of both hemispheres increased rapidly from the early 1990s to the early 2000s. While this SST warming in the western subtropical Pacific is partly explained by global warming signals, the predictions of our model initialized in 1995 or 1996 tend to simulate the pattern of the SST increase and the associated precipitation changes. This large climate change around the late 1990s may be related to phenomena such as the recent increase in the typhoon frequency in Taiwan and the weakened East Asian monsoon reported by recent studies.

    DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.2012-A01

  • MIROC4h-A new high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model Reviewed

    Takashi T. Sakamoto, Yoshiki Komuro, Teruyuki Nishimura, Masayoshi Ishii, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hideo Shiogama, Akira Hasegawa, Takahiro Toyoda, Masato Mori, Tatsuo Suzuki, Yukiko Imada, Toru Nozawa, Kumiko Takata, Takashi Mochizuki, Koji Ogochi, Seita Emori, Hiroyasu Hasumi, Masahide Kimoto

    Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan   90 ( 3 )   325 - 359   2012.7

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    A new high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model named MIROC4h has been developed, and its performance in a 120-year control experiment (including a 50-year spin-up) under the present conditions (the year 1950) is examined. The results of the control experiment by MIROC4h are compared with simulations of preindustrial conditions carried out for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) using the previous high- and medium-resolution versions of the model, called MIROC3h and MIROC3m, respectively. A major change in MIROC4h is a doubling of the resolution of the atmospheric component to 0.5625°, compared to 1.125° for MIROC3h. The oceanic components of MIROC4h and MIROC3h are eddy-permitting, with a horizontal resolution of 0.28125° (zonal) × 0.1875° (meridional). In MIROC3m, the horizontal resolution is 2.8125° for the atmospheric component and 1.40625° (zonal) × 0.56°-1.4° (meridional) for the ocean component. Compared with MIROC3h and MIROC3m, many improvements have been achieved; for example, errors in the surface air temperature and sea surface temperature are smaller, there is less drift of the ocean water temperature in the subsurface-deep ocean, and the frequency of heavy rain is comparable to observations. The fine horizontal resolution in the atmosphere makes orographic wind and its effects on the ocean more realistic than those of the former models, and the treatment of coastal upwelling motion in the ocean has been improved. Phenomena in the atmosphere and ocean related to the El Niño and southern oscillation are now closer to observations than was obtained by MIROC3h and MIROC3m. The effective climate sensitivity for CO
    2
    doubling is calculated to be about 5.7 K, which is much larger than the value obtained using the IPCC AR4 models, and is mainly due to a decrease in the low-level clouds at low latitudes.

    DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.2012-301

  • Influence of XBT temperature bias on decadal climate prediction with a coupled climate model Reviewed

    Sayaka Yasunaka, Masayoshi Ishii, Masahide Kimoto, Takashi Mochizuki, Hideo Shiogama

    Journal of Climate   24 ( 20 )   5303 - 5308   2011.10

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    The influence of the expendable bathythermograph (XBT) depth bias correction on decadal climate prediction is presented by using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model called the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 3 (MIROC3). The global mean subsurface ocean temperatures that were simulated by the model with the prescribed anthropogenic and natural forcing are consistent with biascorrected observations from the mid-1960s onward, but not with uncorrected observations. The latter is reflected by biases in subsurface ocean temperatures, particularly along thermoclines in the tropics and subtropics. When the correction is not applied to XBT observations, these biases are retained in data assimilation results for the model's initial conditions. Hindcasting past Pacific decadal oscillations (PDOs) is more successful in the experiment with the bias-corrected observations than that without the correction. Improvement of skill in predicting 5-yr mean vertically average ocean subsurface temperature is also seen in the tropical and the central North Pacific where PDO-related signals appear large.

    DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI4230.1

  • Impact of the assimilation of sea ice concentration data on an atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled simulation of the Arctic Ocean climate Reviewed

    Takahiro Toyoda, Toshiyuki Awaji, Nozomi Sugiura, Shuhei Masuda, Hiromichi Igarashi, Yuji Sasaki, Yoshihisa Hiyoshi, Yoichi Ishikawa, Takashi Mochizuki, Takashi T. Sakamoto, Hiroaki Tatebe, Yoshiki Komuro, Tatsuo Suzuki, Teruyuki Nishimura, Masato Mori, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Sayaka Yasunaka, Yukiko Imada, Miki Arai, Masahiro Watanabe, Hideo Shiogama, Toru Nozawa, Akira Hasegawa, Masayoshi Ishii, Masahide Kimoto

    Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere   7 ( 1 )   37 - 40   2011.1

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    We have investigated the effects of assimilating sea ice concentration (SIC) data on a simulation of Arctic Ocean climate using an atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled model. Our results show that the normal overestimation of summertime SIC in the East Siberian Sea and the Beaufort Sea in simulations without sea-ice data input can be greatly reduced by assimilating seaice data and that this improvement is also evident in a following hindcast experiment for 3-4 years after the initialization of the assimilation. In the hindcast experiment, enhanced heat storage in both sea ice and in the ocean surface layer plays a central role in improving the accuracy of the sea ice distribution, particularly in summer. Our detailed investigation suggests that the ice-albedo feedback and the feedback associated with the atmospheric pressure pattern generated by the improved estimation of SIC work more effectively to retain the heat signal after initialization for a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice system prediction. In addition, comparison with field observations confirms that the model fails to produce a realistic feedback loop, which is (presumably) due to inadequacies in both the ice-cloud feedback model and the feedback via the Beaufort Gyre circulation. Further development of coupled models is thus required to better define Arctic Ocean climate processes and to improve the accuracy of their predictions.

    DOI: 10.2151/sola.2011-010

  • Interannual variability of North Pacific eastern subtropical mode water formation in the 1990s derived from a 4-dimensional variational ocean data assimilation experiment Reviewed

    T. Toyoda, T. Awaji, S. Masuda, N. Sugiura, H. Igarashi, Takashi Mochizuki, Y. Ishikawa

    Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans   51 ( 1-2 )   1 - 25   2011.1

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    The interannual variability of eastern subtropical mode water (ESTMW) formation in the North Pacific is examined using a new ocean dataset constructed by a 4-dimensional variational data assimilation experiment covering the decade of the 1990s. The volume of newly formed ESTMW varies due to interannual variability in the following three physical processes taking place in the surface layer: (1) convergence in the transport of surface saline water induced by Ekman flow in the vicinity of the formation region, (2) thermal stratification in the preconditioning phase in association with the insolation anomaly induced largely by low-level cloud coverage, and (3) wintertime surface cooling in the eastern subtropics. We find that, in addition to the surface forcing, the properties of both the ESTMW and the upper mixed-layer water are broadly controlled by the volume of the new ESTMW component, and that the variations in the upper mixed-layer water affect the properties of ESTMW formed in the following winter. Due to the combined effect of these processes, the ESTMW subducts down to subsurface layers with a wide range of σ
    θ
    values lying between 24.8 and 25.4 and with significant interannual variation in water mass formation.

    DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2010.09.001

  • Possible influence of volcanic activity on the decadal potential predictability of the natural variability in near-term climate predictions Reviewed International journal

    H. Shiogama, S. Emori, T. Mochizuki, S. Yasunaka, T. Yokohata, M. Ishii, T. Nozawa, M. Kimoto

    Advances in Meteorology   2010.6

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    DOI: 10.1155/2010/657318

  • Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction Reviewed

    Takashi Mochizuki, Masayoshi Ishii, Masahide Kimoto, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Masahiro Watanabe, Toru Nozawa, Takashi T. Sakamoto, Hideo Shiogama, Toshiyuki Awaji, Nozomi Sugiura, Takahiro Toyoda, Sayaka Yasunaka, Hiroaki Tatebe, Masato Mori

    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America   107 ( 5 )   1833 - 1837   2010.2

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    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0906531107

  • Seasonal climate modeling over the Indian Ocean by employing a 4D-VAR coupled data assimilation approach Reviewed

    Takashi Mochizuki, Nozomi Sugiura, Toshiyuki Awaji, Takahiro Toyoda

    Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans   114 ( 11 )   2009.11

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    We carry out the first attempt to apply an adjoint method to a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) toward enhancing a skill in seasonal climate modeling. Focusing on 10-day mean errors of a CGCM output, we optimize the oceanic initial conditions together with the bulk adjustment factors by employing a four-dimensional variational data assimilation approach. We perform 9-month-long assimilation experiments independently every 6 months between January 1990 and March 2000. When using the optimized values for the initial conditions and the adjustment factors, a set of 9-month-long, 10-member ensemble simulation always displays realistic seasonal cycle and its interannual modulations over the tropical Indian Ocean (e.g., growing, mature, and decaying phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode events). The optimized values of the bulk adjustment factors primarily reduce the model biases in climatological fields, while the optimization of the oceanic initial conditions largely contributes to a realistic representation of the interannual modulations of seasonal cycle. In the overlapped seasons (i.e., January-March and July-September), the ensemble mean states derived from two experiments show only slight differences in seasonal climate variations over most of the Indian Ocean. These results validate that our assimilation approach is generally effective for advancing a seasonal climate modeling and for obtaining a realistic analysis that is compatible between atmosphere and ocean.

    DOI: 10.1029/2008JC005208

  • A possible role for unstable coupled waves affected by resonance between Kelvin waves and seasonal warming in the development of the strong 1997-1998 El Niño Reviewed

    T. Toyoda, S. Masuda, N. Sugiura, Takashi Mochizuki, H. Igarashi, M. Kamachi, Y. Ishikawa, T. Awaji

    Deep-Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers   56 ( 4 )   495 - 512   2009.4

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    Time-varying air-sea coupled processes in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific associated with strong El Niño development during the 1997-1998 period are examined using a newly developed reanalysis dataset obtained from four-dimensional variational ocean-atmosphere coupled data assimilation experiments. The time series of this data field exhibits realistic features of El Niño evolution. Our analysis indicates that resonance between eastward-propagating oceanic downwelling Kelvin waves and the seasonal rise of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific generates relatively persistent high SST conditions accompanied by a deeper thermocline and more relaxed easterly winds than usual. The surface condition resulting from the wave-seasonal SST resonance represents a preconditioned state that leads to an enhancement in incident downwelling Kelvin waves to levels sufficient to induce large-amplitude unstable coupled waves in the central to eastern equatorial region. Heat balance estimates using our reanalysis dataset suggest that the unstable coupled waves are categorized within the intermediate regime of coupled Kelvin and Rossby waves and have the potential to grow rapidly. We argue that the seasonal resonance and the unstable coupled waves should play crucial roles in the development of the largest historical El Niño event, which was recorded between late 1997 and early 1998.

    DOI: 10.1016/j.dsr.2008.12.002

  • Possible oceanic feedback in the extratropics in relation to the North Atlantic SST tripole Reviewed

    Takashi Mochizuki, Toshiyuki Awaji, Nozomi Sugiura

    Geophysical Research Letters   36 ( 5 )   2009.3

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    We analyze the results of 4-dimensional variational data assimilation experiments using a coupled general circulation model and identify signals from a possible extratropical oceanic feedback relating to the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) tripole. Examination of the optimized control variables (coupling parameters) and the resultant climate fields reveals that the model errors in the North Atlantic climate variations are very sensitive to the intensity of the extratropical air-sea thermal coupling. This results in the enhancement of the atmospheric responses to SST changes particularly around 40°N, 50°W, when the model errors are most effectively corrected. Since an adjoint approach enables us to detect the sensitivity to fluctuations in the model variables, our results suggest that this oceanic thermal feedback in the extratropics is a key physical process influencing the North Atlantic Oscillation and the associated North Atlantic SST tripole.

    DOI: 10.1029/2008GL036781

  • Development of a four-dimensional variational coupled data assimilation system for enhanced analysis and prediction of seasonal to interannual climate variations Reviewed

    Nozomi Sugiura, Toshiyuki Awaji, Shuhei Masuda, Takashi Mochizuki, Takahiro Toyoda, Toru Miyama, Hiromichi Igarashi, Yoichi Ishikawa

    Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans   113 ( 10 )   2008.10

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    A four-dimensional variational (4D-VAR) data assimilation system using a coupled ocean-atmosphere global model has been successfully developed with the aim of better defining the dynamical states of the global climate on seasonal to interannual scales. The application of this system to state estimations of climate processes during the 1996-1998 period shows, in particular, that the representations of structures associated with several key events in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sector (such as the El Niño, the Indian Ocean dipole, and the Asian summer monsoon) are significantly improved. This fact suggests that our 4D-VAR coupled data assimilation (CDA) approach has the potential to correct the initial location of the model climate attractor on the basis of observational data. In addition, the coupling parameters that control the air-sea exchange fluxes of mass, momentum, and heat become well adjusted. Such an initialization using the 4D-VAR CDA approach allows us to make a roughly 1.5-year lead time prediction of the 1997-1998 El Niño event. These results demonstrate that our 4D-VAR CDA system has the ability to enhance forecast potential for seasonal to interannual phenomena.

    DOI: 10.1029/2008JC004741

  • Summertime evolution of decadal sea surface temperature anomalies in the midlatitude north pacific Reviewed

    Takashi Mochizuki, Toshiyuki Awaji

    Journal of Climate   21 ( 7 )   1569 - 1588   2008.4

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    To clarify the summertime evolution of decadal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and related physical processes in the midlatitudes of the North Pacific, numerical solutions of a three-dimensional bulk mixed layer model are analyzed, focusing on the contribution of the net shortwave radiative forcing at the sea surface. A quantitative heat budget analysis for the ocean mixed layer relating to late-1980s decadal SST change reveals that the decadal SST anomalies decay from late spring to early summer over the entire midlatitudes of the North Pacific. This quasi-seasonal decay of the decadal SST anomalies is controlled by an anomalous local thermal damping (i.e., anomalous surface heat fluxes). From midsummer to early autumn the anomalous net shortwave radiation flux associated with a meridional shift of the storm track acts to induce strong seasonal damping of the decadal SST anomaly in the northern Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension region. In contrast, in the north of the subtropical frontal region, the net shortwave radiation flux anomaly, which results from changes in low-level stratiform cloud cover, plays a major role in seasonally enhancing the decadal SST anomaly. Consequently, the SST anomalies formed by these radiative forcings cause significant variations in the local thermal damping rate at the sea surface over the period from late summer to early autumn.

    DOI: 10.1175/2007JCLI1853.1

  • A regional ocean-atmosphere model for eastern Pacific climate Toward reducing tropical biases Reviewed

    Shang Ping Xie, Toru Miyama, Yuqing Wang, Haiming Xu, Simon P. de Szoeke, R. Justin O. Small, Kelvin J. Richards, Takashi Mochizuki, Toshiyuki Awaji

    Journal of Climate   20 ( 8 )   1504 - 1522   2007.4

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    The tropical Pacific Ocean is a climatically important region, home to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. The simulation of its climate remains a challenge for global coupled ocean-atmosphere models, which suffer large biases especially in reproducing the observed meridional asymmetry across the equator in sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall. A basin ocean general circulation model is coupled with a full-physics regional atmospheric model to study eastern Pacific climate processes. The regional ocean atmosphere model (ROAM) reproduces salient features of eastern Pacific climate, including a northward displaced intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) collocated with a zonal band of high SST, a low-cloud deck in the southeastern tropical Pacific, the equatorial cold tongue, and its annual cycle. The simulated low cloud deck experiences significant seasonal variations in vertical structure and cloudiness; cloud becomes decoupled and separated from the surface mixed layer by a stable layer in March when the ocean warms up, leading to a reduction in cloudiness. The interaction of low cloud and SST is an important internal feedback for the climatic asymmetry between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. In an experiment where the cloud radiative effect is turned off, this climatic asymmetry weakens substantially, with the ITCZ migrating back and forth across the equator following the sun. In another experiment where tropical North Atlantic SST is lowered by 2°C - say, in response to a slow-down of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation as during the Younger Dryas - the equatorial Pacific SST decreases by up to 3°C in January-April but changes much less in other seasons, resulting in a weakened equatorial annual cycle. The relatively high resolution (0.5°) of the ROAM enables it to capture mesoscale features, such as tropical instability waves, Central American gap winds, and a thermocline dome off Costa Rica. The implications for tropical biases and paleoclimate research are discussed.

    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI4080.1

  • A simple diagnostic calculation of marine stratocumulus cloud cover for use in general circulation models Reviewed

    Takashi Mochizuki, Toru Miyama, Toshiyuki Awaji

    Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres   112 ( 6 )   2007.3

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    An improved diagnostic calculation for determining the marine stratocumulus (SCu) cloud cover has been implemented for atmospheric and coupled general circulation models (GCMs). The approach aims to improve the simulated climatological features of the lower troposphere and to reduce warm sea surface temperature (SST) biases that develop along western continental coasts in the subtropical regions of coupled GCMs. In the new diagnostic calculation introduced in the present study, the SCu cloud cover was linearly regressed to atmospheric stability, and the temporal and spatial distributions of the regression coefficients were estimated beforehand using observational data sets. The upward transport of heat, moisture and momentum in subcloud layers accompanying the SCu was also simulated by controlling the vertical diffusion coefficients. Using the new calculation, the SCu cloud cover in an atmospheric GCM become more representative in both spatial and seasonal variations. In addition, the simulation of related atmospheric structures in the lower troposphere is considerably improved. Furthermore, when the new calculation is applied to a coupled GCM, SST values to the west of continents in subtropical areas display weakened warm biases and more realistic seasonal cycles resulting from the modification of the downward shortwave radiation flux at the sea surface. The new calculation introduces both local and large-scale improvements in model climatology over low-latitude and midlatitude regions. In the eastern Pacific, for example, a shallow meridional circulation across the equator is excited, and the strength and location of the intertropical convergence zone and the seasonal cycle of equatorial SST become more realistic.

    DOI: 10.1029/2006JD007223

  • Improved coupled GCM climatologies for summer monsoon onset studies over Southeast Asia Reviewed

    Takashi Mochizuki, Hiromichi Igarashi, Nozomi Sugiura, Shuhei Masuda, Nobuhiro Ishida, Toshiyuki Awaji

    Geophysical Research Letters   34 ( 1 )   2007.1

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    To enhance accurate estimates of Asian monsoon variability by a coupled general circulation model (GCM), the bulk adjustment factors that control latent heat, sensible heat and momentum fluxes are optimized using a 4-dimensional variational data assimilation method. When using the optimized values, a coupled GCM is better able to define the summer monsoon features over Southeast Asia. In particular, the early, rapid onset is realistically simulated around the Indochina Peninsula, which is a key region for the initial stage of the Asian summer monsoon development. The spatial patterns of precipitation rate, wind velocity, and sea surface temperature are successfully reproduced. The optimized values of the bulk adjustment factors for latent heat flux become significantly correlated with the strength of the subgrid-scale disturbances primarily associated with energetic deep convective activities in the tropics, which is one of the major sources of model biases in commonly-used coarse resolution models.

    DOI: 10.1029/2006GL027861

  • Seasonality of decadal sea surface temperature anomalies in the northwestern Pacific Reviewed

    Takashi Mochizuki, Hideji Kida

    Journal of Climate   19 ( 12 )   2953 - 2968   2006.6

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    The seasonality of the decadal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the related physical processes in the northwestern Pacific were investigated using a three-dimensional bulk mixed layer model. In the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region, the strongest decadal SST anomaly was observed during December-February, while that of the central North Pacific occurred during February-April. From an examination of the seasonal heat budget of the ocean mixed layer, it was revealed that the seasonal-scale enhancement of the decadal SST anomaly in the KOE region was controlled by horizontal Ekman temperature transport in early winter and by vertical entrainment in autumn. The temperature transport by the geostrophic current made only a slight contribution to the seasonal variation of the decadal SST anomaly, despite controlling the upper-ocean thermal conditions on decadal time scales through the slow Rossby wave adjustment to the wind stress curl. When averaging over the entire KOE region, the contribution from the net sea surface heat flux was also no longer significantly detected. By examining the horizontal distributions of the local thermal damping rate, however, it was concluded that the wintertime decadal SST anomaly in the eastern KOE region was rather damped by the net sea surface heat flux. It was due to the fact that the anomalous local thermal damping of the SST anomaly resulting from the vertical entrainment in autumn was considerably strong enough to suppress the anomalous local atmospheric thermal forcing that acted to enhance the decadal SST anomaly.

    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3807.1

  • Maintenance of decadal SST anomalies in the midlatitude North Pacific Reviewed

    Takashi Mochizuki, Hideji Kida

    Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan   81 ( 3 )   477 - 491   2003.6

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    Mechanisms that maintain decadal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the midlatitudes North Pacific are investigated using observational data. Focussing on the seasonality of decadal SST anomalies, individual heat budget analyses were conducted for the ocean mixed layer in a southern region (25°N-35°N, 175°E-145°W , and a northern region (39°N-49°N, 165°E-155°W) of the North Pacific. It was revealed that the decadal SST anomaly in the southern region, which was pronounced in winter, was significantly maintained by meridional Ekman temperature advection that occurred during November-January. On the other hand, the decadal SST anomaly in the northern region, which was observed in almost all months, was maintained by the sum of the effects of sensible and latent heat flux, and the net long wave radiation flux at the sea surface, and the meridional Ekman temperature transport during the period of October-December. In the Kuroshio extension region, which overlaps the southwest portion of the northern region, the anomalous temperature transport by entrainment in the seasonal thermocline was found to be very important for the maintenance of decadal SST anomaly.

    DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.81.477

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Books

  • 気象研究ノート「ENSO研究の最前線」, 第10章 ENSOと十年規模変動, 渡部雅浩 木本昌秀 編著

    望月崇

    日本気象学会  2013.4 

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    Responsible for pages:139-149   Language:Japanese  

  • データ同化 -観測・実験とモデルを融合するイノベーション-, 第8章 アジョイント法の応用, 淡路敏之 蒲地政文 池田元美 石川洋一 編著

    望月崇

    京都大学出版会  2009.6 

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    Responsible for pages:223-246   Language:Japanese  

Presentations

  • Increasing WNP tropical cyclone-related extreme precipitation over East Asia during boreal summer associated with PDO shift

    呉継煒, 川村隆一, 望月崇, 川野哲也

    第46回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  2025.3 

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    Event date: 2025.3

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:九州大学筑紫キャンパス   Country:Japan  

  • Multiyear potential predictability of the wintertime heavy‬ rainfall potentials tied to the transbasin variability‬ International conference

    Takashi Mochizuki

    2024 International workshop on interbasin interaction, its impacts on‬ ‭ predictability,‬‭ and related climate phenomena  2024.12 

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    Event date: 2024.12

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:Fukuoka   Country:Japan  

  • 福岡平野周辺における夏季積乱雲の発生環境場

    小畑佑介, 川野哲也, 川村隆一, 望月崇, 箕輪昌裕, 髙島祐弥

    日本気象学会2024年度秋季大会  2024.11 

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    Event date: 2024.11

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:つくば国際会議場   Country:Japan  

  • 同位体領域気象モデルを用いた2019年8月佐賀豪雨の水蒸気起源の推定

    大串湧二, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 望月崇, 一柳錦平, 芳村圭, 李肖陽

    日本気象学会2024年度秋季大会  2024.11 

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    Event date: 2024.11

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Poster presentation  

    Venue:つくば国際会議場   Country:Japan  

  • 台風に伴う水蒸気コンベアベルトがベンガル湾上の擾乱に与える影響

    丸野航輔, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 望月崇

    日本気象学会2024年度秋季大会  2024.11 

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    Event date: 2024.11

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Poster presentation  

    Venue:つくば国際会議場   Country:Japan  

  • 2023年6月29日〜7月1日に九州地方で発生した地形性降水バンドの事例解析

    渡守爽太郎, 川野哲也, 川村隆一, 望月崇

    日本気象学会2024年度秋季大会  2024.11 

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    Event date: 2024.11

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Poster presentation  

    Venue:つくば国際会議場   Country:Japan  

  • 初冬における極夜ジェットのバイモーダルな年々変動に対する北極海氷の役割

    安藤雄太, 望月崇

    日本気象学会2024年度秋季大会  2024.11 

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    Event date: 2024.11

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Poster presentation  

    Venue:つくば国際会議場   Country:Japan  

  • 黒潮大蛇行に伴う暖水塊と冷水塊が紀伊半島の降水に与える影響

    森田直樹, 立花義裕, 安藤雄太, 望月崇

    日本気象学会2024年度秋季大会  2024.11 

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    Event date: 2024.11

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:つくば国際会議場   Country:Japan  

  • 急発達する爆弾低気圧の渦構造に及ぼす山岳の力学的影響

    近藤亜美, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 望月崇

    日本気象学会2024年度秋季大会  2024.11 

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    Event date: 2024.11

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:つくば国際会議場   Country:Japan  

  • 冬季東アジア極端降水量ポテンシャルの潜在的複数年予測可能性

    望月崇

    日本気象学会2024年度秋季大会  2024.11 

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    Event date: 2024.11

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:つくば国際会議場   Country:Japan  

  • 中部日本・西日本に大雨をもたらす梅雨期メソ対流系の組織化形態

    小田凱翔, 川野哲也, 川村隆一, 望月崇

    日本気象学会2024年度秋季大会  2024.11 

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    Event date: 2024.11

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:つくば国際会議場   Country:Japan  

  • 2023年7月中旬に秋田で発生した豪雨の数値シミュレーション

    室井清雅, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 望月崇

    日本気象学会2024年度秋季大会  2024.11 

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    Event date: 2024.11

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:つくば国際会議場   Country:Japan  

  • 夏季九州の極端降水量ポテンシャルと熱帯気候場の中長期変調

    望月崇

    第10回MJO研究会  2024.10 

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    Event date: 2024.10

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:名古屋大学   Country:Japan  

  • 冬季東アジア極端降水量ポテンシャルの潜在的複数年予測可能性

    望月崇

    低気圧と暴風雨に係るワークショップ2024  2024.9 

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    Event date: 2024.9

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:防災科学技術研究所   Country:Japan  

  • Increasing WNP Tropical Cyclone-related Extreme Precipitation over East Asia during Boreal Summer Associated with PDO Shift

    Wu Jiwei, Ryuichi Kawamura, Takashi Mochizuki, Tetsuya Kawano

    低気圧と暴風雨に係るワークショップ2024  2024.9 

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    Event date: 2024.9

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:防災科学技術研究所   Country:Japan  

  • Increasing WNP tropical cyclone-related extreme precipitation over East Asia during boreal summer associated with PDO shift International conference

    Jiwei Wu, Ryuichi Kawamura, Takashi Mochizuki, Tetsuya Kawano

    9th GEWEX Open Science Conference  2024.7 

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    Event date: 2024.7

    Language:English   Presentation type:Poster presentation  

    Venue:札幌   Country:Japan  

  • Increasing trend of WNP tropical cyclone-related precipitation over East Asia during boreal summer International conference

    Jiwei Wu, Ryuichi Kawamura, Takashi Mochizuki, Tetsuya Kawano

    JpGU Meeting 2024  2024.5 

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    Event date: 2024.5

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:幕張メッセ   Country:Japan  

  • Interannual fluctuations of summertime heavy rainfall potentials based on two thresholds in western Japan International conference

    Takashi Mochizuki

    JpGU Meeting 2024  2024.5 

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    Event date: 2024.5

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:幕張メッセ   Country:Japan  

  • Multi-year predictive skill of the wintertime heavy rainfall potentials in western Japan International conference

    Takashi Mochizuki

    JpGU Meeting 2024  2024.5 

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    Event date: 2024.5

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:幕張メッセ   Country:Japan  

  • 日本の山岳が爆弾低気圧の構造に及ぼす影響 International conference

    近藤亜美, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 望月崇

    JpGU Meeting 2024  2024.5 

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    Event date: 2024.5

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:幕張メッセ   Country:Japan  

  • 黒潮大蛇行に伴う暖水塊と冷水塊が紀伊半島の降水に及ぼす影響-2011年台風12号を用いた感度実験 International conference

    森田直樹, 立花義裕, 安藤雄太, 望月崇

    JpGU Meeting 2024  2024.5 

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    Event date: 2024.5

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:幕張メッセ   Country:Japan  

  • 夏のインド洋と東太平洋の昇温がアジア周辺の循環場に与える影響

    井上壘輝凱, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也

    第19回異常気象研究会  2023.12 

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    Event date: 2023.12

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:京都大学   Country:Japan  

  • Decadal modulation of ENSO and IOD impacts on the Indian Ocean upwelling

    張暁林, 望月崇

    第19回異常気象研究会  2023.12 

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    Event date: 2023.12

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:京都大学   Country:Japan  

  • 水蒸気起源から読み解く線状降水帯の発生環境場の形成プロセス

    西村はるか, 川村隆一, 李肖陽, 川野哲也, 望月崇, 一柳錦平, 芳村圭

    第19回異常気象研究会  2023.12 

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    Event date: 2023.12

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:京都大学   Country:Japan  

  • CMIP6におけるモデル間のパターン効果の感度が⼤気安定度の違いによりどのように変わるか?

    土田耕, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也

    新学術領域研究「変わりゆく気候系における中緯度大気海洋相互作用hotspot」第5回領域全体会議  2023.12 

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    Event date: 2023.12

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:東京大学大気海洋研究所   Country:Japan  

  • 気候変化に伴う熱帯循環の変化と台⾵の寄与について -結合プロセスの重要性の検討-

    霍見浩志, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 韮澤雄太朗, 宮川知⼰

    新学術領域研究「変わりゆく気候系における中緯度大気海洋相互作用hotspot」第5回領域全体会議  2023.12 

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    Event date: 2023.12

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:東京大学大気海洋研究所   Country:Japan  

  • Atlantic impacts on subdecadal warming over the tropical Pacific in the 2000s International conference

    Mochizuki, T., M. Watanabe

    WCRP Open Science Conference 2023  2023.10 

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    Event date: 2023.10

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:Online and Kigali   Country:Rwanda  

  • CMIP6 piControl実験における放射フィードバック強度に関する解析:全球平均地表面温度の変化と放射応答のラグ関係の観点から

    土田耕, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 釜江陽一

    日本気象学会2023年度秋季大会  2023.10 

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    Event date: 2023.10

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:東北大学   Country:Japan  

  • 線状降水帯の降水表現における雲凝結核数濃度依存性

    中村健人, 川野哲也, 川村隆一, 望月崇

    日本気象学会2023年度秋季大会  2023.10 

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    Event date: 2023.10

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:東北大学   Country:Japan  

  • 水蒸気起源から読み解く線状降水帯の発生環境場の形成プロセス

    西村はるか, 川村隆一, 李肖陽, 川野哲也, 望月崇, 一柳錦平, 芳村圭

    日本気象学会2023年度秋季大会  2023.10 

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    Event date: 2023.10

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:東北大学   Country:Japan  

  • 夏季九州における顕著降水量ポテンシャルの年々変動と変調

    望月崇

    第9回マッデン・ジュリアン振動研究会  2023.9 

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    Event date: 2023.9

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:岡山大学津島キャンパス   Country:Japan  

  • インド洋昇温に伴うPJパターンの数十年規模変調

    井上壘輝凱, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也

    第9回マッデン・ジュリアン振動研究会  2023.9 

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    Event date: 2023.9

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:岡山大学津島キャンパス   Country:Japan  

  • 気候変化に伴う熱帯循環の変化と台風の寄与について〜結合プロセスの重要性の検討〜

    霍見浩志, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也

    第9回マッデン・ジュリアン振動研究会  2023.9 

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    Event date: 2023.9

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:岡山大学津島キャンパス   Country:Japan  

  • CMIP6 piControl 実験における放射フィードバック強度に関する解析: 全球平均地表面温度の変化と放射応答のラグ関係の観点から

    土田耕, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也

    第9回マッデン・ジュリアン振動研究会  2023.9 

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    Event date: 2023.9

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:岡山大学津島キャンパス   Country:Japan  

  • Tropical cyclone induced remote precipitation over Yangtze River Basin during the last stage of Meiyu Period

    Jiwei Wu, Ryuichi Kawamura, Takashi Mochizuki, Tetsuya Kawano

    気候システム研究集会2023  2023.9 

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    Event date: 2023.9

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:長崎大学環境科学部   Country:Japan  

  • インド洋昇温に伴うPJパターンの数十年規模変調について

    井上壘輝凱, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也

    気候システム研究集会2023  2023.9 

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    Event date: 2023.9

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:長崎大学環境科学部   Country:Japan  

  • 同位体循環モデルを用いたJPCZがもたらす降雪の水蒸気起源の推定

    菅谷康平, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 望月崇

    気候システム研究集会2023  2023.9 

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    Event date: 2023.9

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:長崎大学環境科学部   Country:Japan  

  • Atlantic impacts on subdecadal variation over the tropical Pacific International conference

    Mochizuki, T., M. Watanabe

    International workshop on Mid-latitude Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions: Their Processes and Predictability  2023.6 

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    Event date: 2023.6

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:富山国際会議場   Country:Japan  

  • Moisture sources of extraordinary heavy precipitation in Kyushu in middle August 2021: Return to Baiu situation International conference

    Haruka Nishimura, Xiaoyang Li, Ryuichi Kawamura, Tetsuya Kawano, Takashi Mochizuki, Kimpei Ichiyanagi, Kei Yoshimura

    International workshop on Mid-latitude Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions: Their Processes and Predictability  2023.6 

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    Event date: 2023.6

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:富山国際会議場   Country:Japan  

  • Atlantic impacts on subdecadal variation over the tropical Pacific International conference

    Mochizuki, T., M. Watanabe

    JpGU Meeting 2023  2023.5 

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    Event date: 2023.5

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:幕張メッセ   Country:Japan  

  • Future changes in tropical cyclone-induced precipitation distribution around Kyushu Islands in a set of dynamically downscaled large-ensemble simulations International conference

    Yamaguchi, S., T. Mochizuki, R. Kawamura, T. Kawano

    JpGU Meeting 2023  2023.5 

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    Event date: 2023.5

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:幕張メッセ   Country:Japan  

  • Intermodel comparison in relationships between externally and internally forced radiative feedbacks for CMIP6 simulations International conference

    Tsuchida, K., T. Mochizuki, R. Kawamura, T. Kawano

    JpGU Meeting 2023  2023.5 

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    Event date: 2023.5

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:幕張メッセ   Country:Japan  

  • IPOCと梅雨期の九州の降水量との関連性

    井上壘輝凱, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也

    中緯度大気海洋相互作用hotspot2研究集会  2023.3 

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    Event date: 2023.3

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:九州大学伊都キャンパス   Country:Japan  

  • 2021年8月豪雨~水蒸気起源解析から「戻り梅雨」を読み解く~

    西村はるか, 李肖陽, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 望月崇, 一柳錦平, 芳村圭, 西俊一, 箕輪昌裕, 岩堀太紀

    中緯度大気海洋相互作用hotspot2研究集会  2023.3 

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    Event date: 2023.3

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:九州大学伊都キャンパス   Country:Japan  

  • 日本海で発達する爆弾低気圧の北海道横断時における構造変化

    近藤亜美, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 望月崇

    中緯度大気海洋相互作用hotspot2研究集会  2023.3 

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    Event date: 2023.3

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:九州大学伊都キャンパス   Country:Japan  

  • 北西太平洋における熱帯低気圧と環境場の関係

    丸野航輔, 川村隆一, 望月崇, 川野哲也

    中緯度大気海洋相互作用hotspot2研究集会  2023.3 

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    Event date: 2023.3

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:九州大学伊都キャンパス   Country:Japan  

  • 超高解像度大規模アンサンブルデータにおける九州域の熱帯低気圧降水分布の将来変化解析

    山口修平, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也

    中緯度大気海洋相互作用hotspot2研究集会  2023.3 

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    Event date: 2023.3

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:九州大学伊都キャンパス   Country:Japan  

  • IPOCモードの十年規模変動とその要因分析

    土田耕, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也

    中緯度大気海洋相互作用hotspot2研究集会  2023.3 

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    Event date: 2023.3

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:九州大学伊都キャンパス   Country:Japan  

  • Decadal modulation of ENSO and IOD impact on the Indian Ocean upwelling

    Xiaolin Zhang, Takashi Mochizuki

    中緯度大気海洋相互作用hotspot2研究集会  2023.3 

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    Event date: 2023.3

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:九州大学伊都キャンパス   Country:Japan  

  • 南岸低気圧による関東大雪時に関東南沖で形成される沿岸前線について

    井上弘陽, 川野哲也, 川村隆一, 望月崇

    中緯度大気海洋相互作用hotspot2研究集会  2023.3 

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    Event date: 2023.3

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:九州大学伊都キャンパス   Country:Japan  

  • 線状降水帯の降水表現の雲物理スキーム依存性

    中村健人, 川野哲也, 川村隆一, 望月崇

    中緯度大気海洋相互作用hotspot2研究集会  2023.3 

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    Event date: 2023.3

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:九州大学伊都キャンパス   Country:Japan  

  • CMIP6 piControl実験における全球平均地表面温度の変化と大気上端での放射応答のラグ関係についての要因分析

    土田耕, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 釜江陽一

    異常気象研究会2022  2022.12 

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    Event date: 2022.12

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:京都大学   Country:Japan  

  • Recent subdecadal variability and predictability of the tropical Pacific climate Invited International conference

    Mochizuki, T.

    2nd IAMES annual conference  2022.11 

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    Event date: 2022.11

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:online   Country:China  

  • WRF-LESを用いた静岡空港周辺の乱気流シミュレーション

    藤井健, 川野哲也, 川村隆一, 望月崇

    日本気象学会2022年度秋季大会  2022.10 

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    Event date: 2022.10

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:北海道大学   Country:Japan  

  • MIROC6 SSP5-8.5シナリオに基づくJPCZの将来変化

    川野哲也, 安清莉奈, 川村隆一, 望月崇

    日本気象学会2022年度秋季大会  2022.10 

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    Event date: 2022.10

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:北海道大学   Country:Japan  

  • 機械学習を用いた九州地方における梅雨期および夏季の降水予測の改善へ向けた試み

    下園高弘, 川野哲也, 川村隆一, 望月崇

    日本気象学会2022年度秋季大会  2022.10 

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    Event date: 2022.10

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:北海道大学   Country:Japan  

  • 冬型気圧配置時に福岡南部で発生する低高度乱気流

    宇佐川達史, 川野哲也, 川村隆一, 望月崇

    日本気象学会2022年度秋季大会  2022.10 

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    Event date: 2022.10

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:北海道大学   Country:Japan  

  • 台風ボーガスを用いた7月気候場シミュレーションによる台風の遠隔影響(II)

    吉田尚起, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 望月崇

    日本気象学会2022年度秋季大会  2022.10 

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    Event date: 2022.10

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:北海道大学   Country:Japan  

  • 2021年8月豪雨 -水蒸気起源解析から「戻り梅雨」を読み解く-

    西村はるか, 李肖陽, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 望月崇, 一柳錦平, 芳村圭, 西俊一, 箕輪昌裕, 岩堀太紀

    日本気象学会2022年度秋季大会  2022.10 

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    Event date: 2022.10

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:北海道大学   Country:Japan  

  • フィリピン諸島を横断した台風Rai(2021)の数値実験

    中村祐貴, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 望月崇

    日本気象学会2022年度秋季大会  2022.10 

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    Event date: 2022.10

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:北海道大学   Country:Japan  

  • CMIP6 piControl実験における全球平均地表面温度の変化と放射応答のラグ関係についての要因分析

    土田耕, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 釜江陽一

    日本気象学会2022年度秋季大会  2022.10 

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    Event date: 2022.10

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:北海道大学   Country:Japan  

  • 冬季日本における極端降水量ポテンシャルの複数年予測の試み

    望月崇, 川上真, 山口修平, 川村隆一, 川野哲也

    日本気象学会2022年度秋季大会  2022.10 

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    Event date: 2022.10

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:北海道大学   Country:Japan  

  • 冬季日本における極端降水量ポテンシャルの複数年予測の試み

    望月崇, 川上真, 山口修平, 川村隆一, 川野哲也

    第4回高低気圧ワークショップ  2022.8 

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    Event date: 2022.9

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:防災科学技術研究所   Country:Japan  

  • MIROC6 SSP5-8.5シナリオに基づくJPCZの将来変化

    川野哲也, 安清莉奈, 川村隆一, 望月崇

    第4回高低気圧ワークショップ  2022.8 

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    Event date: 2022.9

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:防災科学技術研究所   Country:Japan  

  • 太平洋十年規模振動が顕著な年における台風の長期変動の解析

    井上壘輝凱, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也

    新学術領域研究「変わりゆく気候系における中緯度大気海洋相互作用hotspot」第3回領域全体会議  2022.3 

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    Event date: 2022.3

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:online   Country:Japan  

  • On the physics of the warm water volume and El Nino/La Nina predictability

    Zhang, X., A. J. Clarke, T. Mochizuki

    新学術領域研究「変わりゆく気候系における中緯度大気海洋相互作用hotspot」第3回領域全体会議  2022.3 

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    Event date: 2022.3

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:online   Country:Japan  

  • 2020年3月28日に奄美大島で発生した突風事例の解析

    樋田裕輝, 川野哲也, 川村隆一, 望月崇

    第43回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  2022.3 

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    Event date: 2022.3

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:online   Country:Japan  

  • 北太平洋とユーラシア付近の大気海洋の振動が日本の冬季の気温変動に与える影響

    川上真, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也

    第43回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  2022.3 

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    Event date: 2022.3

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:online   Country:Japan  

  • 水蒸気場変化に対する台風雷活動の応答

    原啓喜, 川野哲也, 川村隆一, 望月崇

    日本気象学会2021年度秋季大会  2021.12 

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    Event date: 2021.12

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:online   Country:Japan  

  • MIROC6 を用いた季節から数年規模気候予測

    片岡崇人, 建部洋晶, 小山博司, 望月崇, 大越智幸司, 直江寛明, 今田由紀子, 塩竈秀夫, 木本昌秀, 渡部雅浩

    日本気象学会2021年度秋季大会  2021.12 

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    Event date: 2021.12

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:online   Country:Japan  

  • CMIP6 piControl実験における摂動フィードバックパラメータ(PFP)の変動とその要因分析

    土田耕, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也

    日本気象学会2021年度秋季大会  2021.12 

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    Event date: 2021.12

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:online   Country:Japan  

  • JPCZおよびそれに関連した豪雪イベントの将来変化

    安清莉奈, 川野哲也, 川村隆一, 望月崇

    日本気象学会2021年度秋季大会  2021.12 

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    Event date: 2021.12

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:online   Country:Japan  

  • 2021年1月の大雪事例でみられた長白山系のカスケード効果

    鈴木雄斗, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 望月崇

    日本気象学会2021年度秋季大会  2021.12 

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    Event date: 2021.12

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:online   Country:Japan  

  • Decadal modulation of the Pacific climate extremes and variability Invited International conference

    Mochizuki, T.

    2020 Northeast Asian Symposium  2021.11 

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    Event date: 2021.11

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:online   Country:Korea, Republic of  

  • Seasonal to decadal predictions with MIROC6 International conference

    Kataoka, T., H. Tatebe, H. Koyama, T. Mochizuki, K. Ogochi, H. Naoe, Y. Imada, H. Shiogama, M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe

    WCRP Workshop on ExCPEns  2021.10 

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    Event date: 2021.10

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:online   Country:Other  

  • CMIP6 piControl 実験における PFP の中⻑期変動とその要因分析

    土田耕、望月崇、川村隆一、川野哲也

    第7回MJO研究会  2021.10 

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    Event date: 2021.10

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:富山大学オンライン   Country:Japan  

  • Climate predictions with MIROC6 International conference

    Kataoka, T., H. Tatebe, H. Koyama, T. Mochizuki, K. Ogochi, H. Naoe, Y. Imada, H. Shiogama, M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe

    Multi-annual to decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic-Arctic Sector  2021.9 

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    Event date: 2021.9

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:The Royal Danish Academy Of Sciences And Letters, Copenhagen   Country:Denmark  

  • Decadal modulation of the Pacific climate extremes and variability International conference

    Mochizuki, T., Y. Imada, Y. Kosaka, T. Miyakawa, M. Mori

    International workshop for mid-latitude air-sea interaction  2021.6 

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    Event date: 2021.6

    Language:English  

    Venue:online   Country:Japan  

  • Interdecadal Variation of Perturbation Feedback Parameter in MIROC6 piControl Simulation International conference

    Tsuchida, K., T. Mochizuki, R. Kawamura, T. Kawano

    International workshop for mid-latitude air-sea interaction  2021.6 

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    Event date: 2021.6

    Language:English  

    Venue:online   Country:Japan  

  • MIROC6 piControl実験における摂動フィードバックパラメータと環境場の関係

    土田 耕, 望月 崇, 川村 隆一, 川野 哲也

    日本気象学会2020年度秋季大会  2020.10 

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    Event date: 2021.6

    Language:Japanese  

    Country:Japan  

  • 朝鮮半島南東部で発生・発達したポーラーロウの解析

    鈴木 雄斗, 川村 隆一, 川野 哲也, 望月 崇

    日本気象学会2020年度春季大会  2020.5 

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    Event date: 2021.6

    Language:Japanese  

    Country:Japan  

  • 台風の発雷域の大気環境場

    原 啓喜, 川野 哲也, 川村 隆一, 望月 崇, 増田 有俊

    日本気象学会2020年度春季大会  2020.5 

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    Event date: 2021.6

    Language:Japanese  

    Country:Japan  

  • MIROC6 歴史実験における摂動フィードバックパラメータと環境場の関係

    土田 耕, 望月 崇, 川村 隆一, 川野 哲也

    日本気象学会2020年度春季大会  2020.5 

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    Event date: 2021.6

    Language:Japanese  

    Country:Japan  

  • 対馬海峡付近で発生・発達したポーラーロウの解析

    鈴木 雄斗, 川村 隆一, 川野 哲也, 望月 崇

    日本気象学会2020年度秋季大会  2020.10 

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    Event date: 2021.6

    Language:Japanese  

    Country:Japan  

  • Towards understanding climate extremes, variability and predictability under changing climate over East Asia Invited International conference

    Mochizuki, T., Y. Kosaka, M. Mori, Y. Imada, T. Miyakawa

    JpGU Meeting 2021  2021.6 

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    Event date: 2021.5 - 2021.6

    Language:English  

    Venue:online   Country:Japan  

  • Interdecadal Variation of Perturbational Feedback Parameter in MIROC6 piControl Simulation International conference

    Tsuchida, K., T. Mochizuki, R. Kawamura, T. Kawano

    JpGU Meeting 2021  2021.6 

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    Event date: 2021.5 - 2021.6

    Language:English  

    Venue:online   Country:Japan  

  • MIROC6 piControl実験における摂動フィードバックパラメータの変動とそのメカニズム解明

    土田耕, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也

    日本気象学会2021年度春季大会  2021.5 

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    Event date: 2021.5

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:online   Country:Japan  

  • 台風ボーガスを用いた7月気候場シミュレーションによる台風の遠隔影響

    吉田尚起, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 望月崇, 飯塚聡

    日本気象学会2021年度春季大会  2021.5 

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    Event date: 2021.5

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:online   Country:Japan  

  • 2021年1月大雪時の爆弾低気圧とJPCZ:長白山系の影響評価

    鈴木雄斗, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 望月崇

    日本気象学会2021年度春季大会  2021.5 

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    Event date: 2021.5

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:online   Country:Japan  

  • 近未来の気候変動や異常気象の理解と予測に向けた取り組み Invited

    望月崇

    第42回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  2021.3 

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    Event date: 2021.4

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (invited, special)  

    Country:Japan  

  • An overview of seasonal to decadal predictions with MIROC6 International conference

    Kataoka, T., H. Tatebe, H. Koyama, T. Mochizuki, K. Ogochi, H. Naoe, Y. Imada, H. Shiogoma, M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe

    JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020  2020.7 

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    Event date: 2021.4

    Language:English  

    Country:Japan  

  • The Atlantic SST influences on the Pacific subdecadal variability International conference

    Mochizuki, T., M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto

    JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020  2020.7 

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    Event date: 2021.4

    Language:English  

    Country:Japan  

  • 大気海洋結合モデルMIROC6を用いた季節から数年規模気候変動予測

    片岡 崇人, 建部 洋晶, 小山 博司, 望月 崇, 大越智 幸司, 直江 寛明, 今田 由紀子, 塩竈 秀夫, 木本 昌秀, 渡部 雅浩

    日本海洋学会2020年度秋季大会  2020.10 

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    Event date: 2021.4

    Language:Japanese  

    Country:Japan  

  • 中緯度気候現象の中長期変調や変化の理解に向けた取組み Invited

    望月 崇, 小坂 優, 森 正人, 今田 由紀子, 宮川 知己

    日本海洋学会2020年度秋季大会  2020.10 

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    Event date: 2021.4

    Language:Japanese  

    Country:Japan  

  • Atlantic impacts on subdecadal warming over the tropical Pacific in the 2000s International conference

    Mochizuki, T., M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto

    AGU Fall Meeting 2020  2020.12 

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    Event date: 2021.4

    Language:English  

    Country:United States  

  • 台風ボーガスを用いた7月気候場シミュレーションによる台風の遠隔影響

    吉田尚起, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 望月崇, 飯塚聡

    第42回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  2021.3 

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    Event date: 2021.3

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Country:Japan  

  • 下層水蒸気量増加に対する梅雨前線帯低気圧の応答

    岩下 将也, 川野 哲也, 川村 隆一, 望月 崇

    第42回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  2021.3 

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    Event date: 2021.3

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Country:Japan  

  • 2018年7月豪雨期間中の中国地方の大雨形成に対するメソ渦の寄与

    簑添 良輔, 川野 哲也, 川村 隆一, 望月 崇

    第42回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  2021.3 

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    Event date: 2021.3

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Country:Japan  

  • 2021年1月における大雪時の爆弾低気圧とJPCZ -長白山系の影響評価-

    鈴木 雄斗, 川村 隆一, 川野 哲也, 望月 崇

    第42回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  2021.3 

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    Event date: 2021.3

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Country:Japan  

  • El Nino-Southern Oscillation evolution modulated by Atlantic Forcing International conference

    Chikamoto, Y., Z. F. Johnson, S.-Y. Wang, M. J. McPhaden, T. Mochizuki

    WCRP-CLIVAR workshop on climate interactions among the tropical basins  2021.2 

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    Event date: 2021.2

    Language:English  

    Country:United States  

  • Pacific decadal oscillation remotely forced by the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic Oceans International conference

    Johnson, Z. F., Y. Chikamoto, S.-Y. Wang, M. J. McPhaden, T. Mochizuki

    WCRP-CLIVAR workshop on climate interactions among the tropical basins  2021.2 

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    Event date: 2021.2

    Language:English  

    Country:United States  

  • 近未来予測にまつわるグローバル気候変動メカニズム研究 Invited

    望月 崇

    第41回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  2020.3 

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    Event date: 2020.6

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (invited, special)  

    Country:Japan  

  • 台風の発雷域の大気環境場

    原 啓喜, 川野 哲也, 川村 隆一, 望月 崇

    第41回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  2020.3 

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    Event date: 2020.6

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Country:Japan  

  • 北太平洋上空におけるPDO指数と対応した乱気流発生頻度の変化

    米持 哲志, 川野 哲也, 川村 隆一, 望月 崇

    第41回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  2020.3 

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    Event date: 2020.6

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Country:Japan  

  • Atlantic impacts on the tropical Pacific climate in the 2000s International conference

    Mochizuki, T., M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto

    American Geoscience Union Fall Meeting 2019  2019.12 

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    Event date: 2020.1

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:San Francisco   Country:United States  

  • 気候変動の予測可能性に関わる大洋間結合

    望月崇

    第6回MJO研究会  2019.9 

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    Event date: 2020.1

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Country:Japan  

  • Ocean impacts on Australian interannual to decadal precipitation variability International conference

    Johnson, Z., Y. Chikamoto, J.-J. Luo, T. Mochizuki

    American Geoscience Union Fall Meeting 2019  2019.12 

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    Event date: 2020.1

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:San Francisco   Country:United States  

  • Observed and hindcasted subdecadal variability of the tropical Pacific climate International conference

    Mochizuki, T., M. Watanabe

    Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2019  2019.5 

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    Event date: 2019.6

    Language:English  

    Country:Japan  

  • Seasonal predictions of tropical cyclones in 2018 using GFDL and NICAM high-resolution global models International conference

    Murakami, H., M. Nakano, V. Ramaswamy, T. Delworth, S. Kapnick, R. Gudgel, T. Mochizuki, Y. Morioka, T. Doi

    Europican Geoscience Union Meeting 2019  2019.5 

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    Event date: 2019.6

    Language:English  

    Country:Japan  

  • Seasonal predictions of tropical cyclones in 2018 using GFDL and NICAM high-resolution global models Invited International conference

    Murakami, H., M. Nakano, V. Ramaswamy, T. Delworth, S. Kapnick, R. Gudgel, T. Mochizuki, T. Doi, Y. Morioka

    Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2019  2019.5 

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    Event date: 2019.6

    Language:English  

    Country:Japan  

  • Seasonal to multi-year climate predictability in a climate model MIROC6 International conference

    Kataoka, T., H. Tatebe, H. Koyama, T. Mochizuki

    Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2019  2019.5 

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    Event date: 2019.6

    Language:English  

    Country:Japan  

  • Atlantic impacts on the tropical Pacific climate in the 2000s International conference

    Mochizuki, T., M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto

    Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2019  2019.5 

     More details

    Event date: 2019.6

    Language:English  

    Country:Japan  

  • 水蒸気場変化に対する台風雷活動の応答

    原啓喜, 川野哲也, 川村隆⼀, 望⽉崇

    低気圧と暴風雨雪に係るワークショップ2021  2021.12 

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:富山大学   Country:Japan  

  • JPCZおよびそれに関連した豪雪イベントの将来変化

    安清莉奈, 川野哲也, 川村隆⼀, 望⽉崇

    低気圧と暴風雨雪に係るワークショップ2021  2021.12 

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:富山大学   Country:Japan  

  • 2021年1月の大雪事例でみられた長白山系のカスケード効果

    鈴木雄斗, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 望月崇

    低気圧と暴風雨雪に係るワークショップ2021  2021.12 

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:富山大学   Country:Japan  

  • 黄海を通過する台風が朝鮮半島周辺海域の海水温と表層流に与えるインパクト

    竹本祐太郎, 川村隆一, 望月崇, 川野哲也

    第44回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  2023.3 

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:online   Country:Japan  

  • 高解像度の大規模アンサンブルデータセットを用いた熱帯低気圧を要因とする降水分布の将来変化の解析

    山口修平, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也

    第44回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  2023.3 

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:online   Country:Japan  

  • Super El Niñoが北大西洋とヨーロッパに与える影響

    和田野雄大, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也

    第44回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  2023.3 

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:online   Country:Japan  

  • 黒潮大蛇行に伴う暖水塊と冷水塊が紀伊半島の降水に及ぼす影響

    森田直樹, 立花義裕, 安藤雄太, 望月崇

    令和5年度日本気象学会中部支部研究会  2023.11 

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:富山大学   Country:Japan  

  • CMIP6 piControl実験における放射フィードバック強度に関する解析:全球平均地表面温度の変化と放射応答のラグ関係の観点から

    土田耕, 望月崇, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 釜江陽一

    第45回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  2024.3 

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:福岡管区気象台   Country:Japan  

  • 2023年7月に秋田で発生した豪雨の数値シミュレーション

    室井清雅, 川村隆一, 川野哲也, 望月崇

    第45回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  2024.3 

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:福岡管区気象台   Country:Japan  

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MISC

  • Editorial: Early career scientists' contributions to tropical Pacific Ocean dynamics and its interaction on mid-latitude weather and climate: features, mechanisms, and prediction Reviewed

    Zhang X, Santoso A, Mochizuki T, Chakravorty S, and Johnson ZF

    Frontiers in Earth Science   2023.10

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    Language:English  

    DOI: 10.3389/feart.2023.1297027

  • ECCWO-4 workshop on “Advances in Earth System Models (ESMs) for marine applications”

    Takashi Mochizuki, Jasmin John, Michael Alexander

    PICES Press   2018.7

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Internal/External technical report, pre-print, etc.  

  • 日本の海洋データ同化研究 -20年間の功績と今後の展望-

    藤井陽介, 蒲地政文, 広瀬直毅, 望月崇, 瀬藤聡, 美山透, 広瀬成章, 長船哲史, 韓修妍, 五十嵐弘道, 宮澤泰正, 豊田隆寛, 干場康博, 増田周平, 石川洋一, 碓氷典久, 黒田寛, 高山勝巳

    海の研究   2017.3

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (scientific journal)  

  • 新用語解説 太平洋十年規模振動(PDO)

    望月崇

    天気   2015.7

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (scientific journal)  

Professional Memberships

  • Japan Geoscience Union

  • Japan Oceanographic Society

  • The Meteorological Society of Japan

  • American Geophysical Union

  • American Meteorological Society

Committee Memberships

  • 日本地球惑星科学連合   学生賞小委員会委員   Domestic

    2023.1 - Present   

  • 日本気象学会九州支部   常任理事   Domestic

    2022.5 - 2026.6   

  • 日本地球惑星科学連合   代議員   Domestic

    2020.4 - 2026.6   

Academic Activities

  • 座長

    第45回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  ( Japan ) 2024.3

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    Type:Competition, symposium, etc. 

  • Screening of academic papers

    Role(s): Peer review

    2024

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    Type:Peer review 

    Number of peer-reviewed articles in foreign language journals:2

  • Local organaizing committee

    中緯度大気海洋相互作用hotspot2研究集会  ( Japan ) 2023.3

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    Type:Competition, symposium, etc. 

    Number of participants:166

  • 座長

    第44回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  ( online Japan ) 2023.3

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    Type:Competition, symposium, etc. 

  • Screening of academic papers

    Role(s): Peer review

    2023

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    Type:Peer review 

    Number of peer-reviewed articles in foreign language journals:4

  • 日本気象学会機関誌「天気」

    2022.5 - Present

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    Type:Academic society, research group, etc. 

  • 座長

    第43回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  ( online Japan ) 2022.3

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    Type:Competition, symposium, etc. 

  • Frontiers in Earth Science International contribution

    2022.3 - 2023.10

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    Type:Academic society, research group, etc. 

  • Screening of academic papers

    Role(s): Peer review

    2022

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    Type:Peer review 

    Number of peer-reviewed articles in foreign language journals:7

  • Session chair International contribution

    International workshop for mid-latitude air-sea interaction  ( online Japan ) 2021.6

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    Type:Competition, symposium, etc. 

  • 座長

    第42回日本気象学会九州支部発表会  ( online Japan ) 2021.3

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    Type:Competition, symposium, etc. 

  • Screening of academic papers

    Role(s): Peer review

    2021

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    Type:Peer review 

    Number of peer-reviewed articles in foreign language journals:6

    Number of peer-reviewed articles in Japanese journals:0

  • Session convener, Session chair International contribution

    Americal Geoscience Union Fall Meeting 2020  ( online UnitedStatesofAmerica ) 2020.12

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    Type:Competition, symposium, etc. 

  • Session convener, Session chair International contribution

    JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020  ( online Japan ) 2020.7

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    Type:Competition, symposium, etc. 

  • Screening of academic papers

    Role(s): Peer review

    2020

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    Type:Peer review 

    Number of peer-reviewed articles in foreign language journals:2

    Number of peer-reviewed articles in Japanese journals:0

  • 実行委員

    気象学会2019年度秋季大会  ( Japan ) 2019.10

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    Type:Competition, symposium, etc. 

  • Session convener, Session chair International contribution

    Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2019  ( Makuhari Japan ) 2019.5

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    Type:Competition, symposium, etc. 

  • Screening of academic papers

    Role(s): Peer review

    2019

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    Type:Peer review 

    Number of peer-reviewed articles in foreign language journals:2

    Number of peer-reviewed articles in Japanese journals:0

  • JAMSTEC Report of Research and Development

    2016.4 - 2019.3

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    Type:Academic society, research group, etc. 

  • Advances in Meteorology International contribution

    2015.4 - 2022.3

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    Type:Academic society, research group, etc. 

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Research Projects

  • 熱帯・極域と双方向作用する中緯度域の気候変動と将来変化

    Grant number:24H02229  2024 - 2028

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science・Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Transformative Research Areas (A)

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    Authorship:Coinvestigator(s)  Grant type:Scientific research funding

  • ハビタブル日本の統括と推進

    Grant number:24H02220  2024 - 2028

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science・Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Transformative Research Areas (A)

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    Authorship:Coinvestigator(s)  Grant type:Scientific research funding

  • Decadal modulation of East Asian climate extremes tied to tropical climate variability

    Grant number:24K00707  2024 - 2027

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

    望月 崇, 今田 由紀子, 宮川 知己

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    Authorship:Principal investigator  Grant type:Scientific research funding

    日本付近の天候、とりわけ梅雨期から夏季の九州地方の顕著現象(例えば、豪雨)には、その特性(頻度や強度)に数年から十年規模の中長期変調がみられる。エルニーニョ現象やしばしばそれに続くインド洋の昇温傾向といった熱帯の気候状態に加えて、それに伴う大気中の波動伝播や水蒸気輸送といったリモートな影響経路、いわば顕著現象と熱帯の卓越気候変動の結びつきに注目しながら、数値モデルを活用してその変調要因を解き明かす。

    CiNii Research

  • メガストームと梅雨がもたらす極端気象・海象災害ハザードの近未来予測研究

    Grant number:24H00369  2024 - 2026

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

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    Authorship:Coinvestigator(s)  Grant type:Scientific research funding

  • 中緯度大気海洋研究の推進と統括

    Grant number:24H02765  2024

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science・Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas (Research in a proposed research area)

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    Authorship:Coinvestigator(s)  Grant type:Scientific research funding

  • メガストームに係る災害ハザードの近未来予測研究

    Grant number:20H00289  2020 - 2024

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

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    Authorship:Coinvestigator(s)  Grant type:Scientific research funding

  • 中緯度域の気候変動のメカニズム解明と予測可能性

    Grant number:19H05703  2019 - 2023

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science・Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas (Research in a proposed research area)

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    Authorship:Principal investigator  Grant type:Scientific research funding

  • 中緯度大気海洋研究の推進と統括

    Grant number:19H05695  2019 - 2023

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science・Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas (Research in a proposed research area)

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    Authorship:Coinvestigator(s)  Grant type:Scientific research funding

  • 大洋間結合の視点から西太平洋気候と熱帯低気圧活動の十年変動プロセスに新知見を創出

    Grant number:17K05661  2017 - 2022

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

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    Authorship:Principal investigator  Grant type:Scientific research funding

  • 熱帯大気海洋系変動と日本の異常天候に関する数値的研究

    Grant number:26247079  2014 - 2017

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

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    Authorship:Coinvestigator(s)  Grant type:Scientific research funding

  • 初期値化した気候予測データを活用して地球温暖化傾向の十年規模変調を解き明かす

    Grant number:26800253  2014 - 2016

    Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

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    Authorship:Principal investigator  Grant type:Scientific research funding

  • 初期値化による再現・予測データを活用した北太平洋フロント域の十年変動プロセス研究

    Grant number:23740362  2011 - 2013

    Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

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    Authorship:Principal investigator  Grant type:Scientific research funding

  • 太平洋とインド洋の年々変動現象の関係に暖水プール変動が果たす役割の研究

    Grant number:19540459  2007 - 2009

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

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    Authorship:Coinvestigator(s)  Grant type:Scientific research funding

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Class subject

  • 連続体力学Ⅰ

    2024.10 - 2025.3   Second semester

  • 対流圏科学

    2024.10 - 2025.3   Second semester

  • 国際科学特論V

    2024.10 - 2024.12   Fall quarter

  • 地球惑星科学IB

    2024.6 - 2024.8   Summer quarter

  • 地学通論

    2024.4 - 2024.9   First semester

  • 地球惑星数理演習

    2024.4 - 2024.9   First semester

  • 地球惑星科学特別講義Ⅸ

    2024.4 - 2024.9   First semester

  • 連続体力学Ⅰ

    2023.10 - 2024.3   Second semester

  • 対流圏科学

    2023.10 - 2024.3   Second semester

  • 地球惑星科学IB

    2023.6 - 2023.8   Summer quarter

  • 力学概論

    2023.4 - 2023.9   First semester

  • 地球惑星数理演習

    2023.4 - 2023.9   First semester

  • 地学通論

    2023.4 - 2023.9   First semester

  • 連続体力学Ⅰ

    2022.10 - 2023.3   Second semester

  • 対流圏科学

    2022.10 - 2023.3   Second semester

  • 地球惑星科学IB

    2022.6 - 2022.8   Summer quarter

  • 地球惑星数理演習

    2022.4 - 2022.9   First semester

  • 連続体力学Ⅰ

    2021.10 - 2022.3   Second semester

  • 対流圏科学

    2021.10 - 2022.3   Second semester

  • 国際科学特論V

    2021.10 - 2021.12   Fall quarter

  • 地球惑星科学IB

    2021.6 - 2021.8   Summer quarter

  • 地球惑星科学特別講義ⅩⅠ

    2021.4 - 2021.9   First semester

  • 地球惑星数理演習

    2021.4 - 2021.9   First semester

  • 力学概論

    2021.4 - 2021.9   First semester

  • 連続体力学Ⅰ

    2020.10 - 2021.3   Second semester

  • 対流圏科学

    2020.10 - 2021.3   Second semester

  • 地球惑星科学I

    2020.4 - 2020.9   First semester

  • 地球惑星数理演習

    2020.4 - 2020.9   First semester

  • フロンティア科学I

    2019.12 - 2020.2   Winter quarter

  • 連続体力学Ⅰ

    2019.10 - 2020.3   Second semester

  • 対流圏科学

    2019.10 - 2020.3   Second semester

  • 地球惑星科学I

    2019.4 - 2019.9   First semester

  • 地球惑星数理演習

    2019.4 - 2019.9   First semester

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Visiting, concurrent, or part-time lecturers at other universities, institutions, etc.

  • 2021  海洋研究開発機構(招聘主任研究員)  Domestic/International Classification:Japan 

  • 2020  海洋研究開発機構(招聘主任研究員)  Domestic/International Classification:Japan 

  • 2019  海洋研究開発機構(招聘主任研究員)  Domestic/International Classification:Japan 

Other educational activity and Special note

  • 2023  Class Teacher  学部

  • 2022  Class Teacher  学部

  • 2021  Class Teacher  学部

  • 2021  Class Teacher  学部

  • 2020  Class Teacher  学部

  • 2020  Class Teacher  学部

  • 2019  Class Teacher  学部

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Social Activities

  • 異常気象と気候変動

    Role(s):Lecturer

    九州大学理学部地球惑星科学科  一日体験入学・模擬授業  九州大学オープンキャンパス  2024.8

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    Audience:General, Scientific, Company, Civic organization, Governmental agency

    Type:University open house

  • 2023年度ジュニアセッションin九州 担当理事

    日本気象学会九州支部  福岡管区気象台  2024.3

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    Audience:General, Scientific, Company, Civic organization, Governmental agency

    Type:Other

  • 第14回気象サイエンスカフェin九州「地球温暖化で農業はどう変わるのか?」担当理事

    日本気象学会九州支部  OREC geen lab 福岡  2024.2

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    Audience:General, Scientific, Company, Civic organization, Governmental agency

    Type:Other

  • 第24回気象教室「気象予測の最前線~観測データの効果的な利用~」担当理事

    日本気象学会九州支部  福岡管区気象台  2023.11

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    Audience:General, Scientific, Company, Civic organization, Governmental agency

    Type:Lecture

  • スーパーサイエンスハイスクール伊都キャンパスご訪問

    福岡県立明善高等学校  2023.10

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    Audience:Infants, Schoolchildren, Junior students, High school students

    Type:Visiting lecture

  • 2022年度ジュニアセッションin九州 担当理事

    日本気象学会九州支部  オンライン  2023.3

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    Audience:General, Scientific, Company, Civic organization, Governmental agency

    Type:Other

  • 第13回気象サイエンスカフェin九州「雨雲の中では何が起こっているのか?-空に手紙を取りに行く話-」担当理事

    日本気象学会九州支部  オンライン  2023.2

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    Audience:General, Scientific, Company, Civic organization, Governmental agency

    Type:Other

  • 第23回気象教室「地球温暖化による冬の異常気象」担当理事, 座長

    日本気象学会九州支部  オンライン  2022.11

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    Audience:General, Scientific, Company, Civic organization, Governmental agency

    Type:Lecture

  • 中緯度大気海洋の十年規模変動とグローバル気候

    新学術研究領域「変わりゆく気候系における中緯度大気海洋相互作用hotspot」YHSセミナー  オンライン  2021.1

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    Audience:General, Scientific, Company, Civic organization, Governmental agency

    Type:Seminar, workshop

  • データ同化夏の学校2020 チューター

    データ同化夏の学校実行委員会  オンライン  2020.8

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    Audience:General, Scientific, Company, Civic organization, Governmental agency

    Type:Seminar, workshop

  • 近未来の気候はどうなるか

    九州大学理学部便り, 18, 5  2020.6

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    Audience:General, Scientific, Company, Civic organization, Governmental agency

    Type:Other

  • 変わりゆく気候の将来予測に挑む

    九州大学理学部地球惑星科学科  九州大学オープンキャンパス  2019.8

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    Audience:General, Scientific, Company, Civic organization, Governmental agency

    Type:Lecture

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Media Coverage

  • 海洋環境 変動期へ. 八戸港 イカ不漁、イワシ豊漁、サバ小型化 Newspaper, magazine

    デーリー東北  2017.12

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    海洋環境 変動期へ. 八戸港 イカ不漁、イワシ豊漁、サバ小型化

  • 気候変動5年先予測 観測データ・数値モデル融合 Newspaper, magazine

    日刊工業新聞  2016.4

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    気候変動5年先予測 観測データ・数値モデル融合

Activities contributing to policy formation, academic promotion, etc.

  • 2019.4 - 2021.12  

    World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP), Panel member

  • 2018.4 - 2020.9  

    日本学術会議 環境学委員会・地球惑星科学委員会合同 FE・WCRP合同分科会 CLIVAR小委員会委員(第24期)

  • 2017.6 - 2019.3  

    文部科学省「統合的気候モデル高度化研究プログラム」, 広報委員

  • 2013.2 - 2017.3  

    文部科学省「気候変動リスク情報創生プログラム」, 広報委員

  • 2011.6 - 2015.10  

    North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES), Working Group #27, Member