2024/10/09 更新

お知らせ

 

写真a

カワノ コウヘイ
川野 浩平
KAWANO KOHEI
所属
工学研究院 附属アジア防災研究センター 助教
職名
助教
外部リンク

論文

  • An Approach for Evacuation Vulnerability Assessment with Consideration of Predicted Evacuation Time

    Han, Z; Kawano, K; Djamaluddin, I; Sugahara, T; Honda, H; Taniguchi, H; Mitani, Y

    GEO-SUSTAINNOVATION FOR RESILIENT SOCIETY, CREST 2023   446   11 - 22   2024年   ISSN:2366-2557 ISBN:978-981-99-9221-8 eISSN:2366-2565

     詳細を見る

    出版者・発行元:Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering  

    Heavy rainfall is a frequent and widespread severe weather hazard that may cause flood damage and human casualties. Since heavy rainfall is a progressive disaster, its scale and hazardous areas can be foreseen beforehand. Therefore, evacuating people from hazardous buildings to shelters in advance is an efficient effort to reduce casualties, but a scientific basis is still required. This paper proposes an approach for assessing each building’s evacuation vulnerability based on predicted evacuation time, aiming to support evacuation decision-making under heavy rainfall. As such, this paper applies Dijkstra’s algorithm to find the evacuation route from each building to accessible shelters. Moreover, a prediction model based on the random forest algorithm is developed to estimate their time-varying evacuation time. Road spatial and temporal characteristics that may affect evacuation time are used when developing the model. Finally, the proposed approach is implemented in Joso City, Japan, to verify its feasibility. As a result, the proposed approach accurately predicts and visualizes the evacuation time between each building and its optimal evacuation shelter. It also visually identifies the hard-to-evacuate buildings. The results indicate that the proposed approach can effectively reflect evacuation vulnerability and support heavy rainfall evacuation decision-making, which proves its validity and practicality.

    DOI: 10.1007/978-981-99-9219-5_2

    Web of Science

    Scopus

  • 避難所要時間による定量的災害リスク評価と非難判断支援への適用

    孟 楽, 三谷 泰浩, 川野 浩平, 韓 子双, 菅原 巧, 谷口 寿俊, 本田 博之

    地域安全学会論文集   43 ( 0 )   9 - 17   2023年11月   ISSN:13452088 eISSN:21879842

     詳細を見る

    記述言語:日本語   出版者・発行元:一般社団法人 地域安全学会  

    <p>During heavy rainfall disasters, quantitative assessments of disaster risk are necessary to support municipalities' decision to issue evacuation information and residents' decision on whether to evacuate has been noted. In this research, two disaster risk assessment methods are proposed for municipalities and residents, based on the evacuation time. Afterwards, in a flood scenario of Joso City, the lead-time of municipalities' evacuation decisions has been calculated by the municipality-oriented assessment method. Meanwhile, the temporal variation of evacuation difficulty of each resident has been quantified by resident-oriented assessment method. As a result, the proposed methods have been considered feasible to support the evacuation decisions of municipalities and residents.</p>

    DOI: 10.11314/jisss.43.9

    CiNii Research

  • Quantitative assessment of flooding risk based on predicted evacuation time: A case study in Joso city, Japan

    Han, ZS; Mitani, Y; Kawano, K; Taniguchi, H; Honda, H; Meng, L; Li, ZY

    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION   98   2023年11月   ISSN:2212-4209

     詳細を見る

    出版者・発行元:International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction  

    Flooding is a frequent natural hazard, threatening people's lives and properties worldwide. Even though completely preventing damage from flooding is impossible, an appropriate evacuation can help minimize its impact and mitigate human casualties. However, analyzing various flooding information to make quick evacuation judgments is challenging for decision-makers. Therefore, a quantitative flooding risk assessment is needed to support appropriate evacuation decisions. This study introduces the travel time under ideal evacuation conditions to quantify evacuation vulnerability, with Dijkstra's algorithm finding the evacuation route and the Random Forest algorithm predicting the evacuation time. The evacuation vulnerability is then integrated with time-varying flooding hazards and estimated congestion levels to assess evacuation risk. Herein, a case study in Joso, Japan is used as an example to demonstrate the practicality and applicability of the proposed approach. As a result, the prediction model achieved high accuracy with an RMSE of 0.88min and a MAPE of 5.88 %. The proposed approach clearly illustrated the vulnerable areas and times that may hinder an efficient evacuation process. Also, this approach identified and visualized the individual evacuation risk distribution during a given flooding scenario: 49.38 % of buildings were assessed as having the highest-risk: no evacuation ability, while a maximum of 11.86 % and 3.83 % of the buildings were assessed as middle-risk and high-risk. Furthermore, the regional evacuation deadline and priorities were specified to ensure timely and effective evacuation. Overall, this study develops an approach for assessing evacuation vulnerability and risk that could facilitate awareness among the public and provide judgmental bases for evacuation preparedness and decision-making.

    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.104113

    Web of Science

    Scopus

  • 予測避難所要時間に基づく災害リスクの新たな評価指標を用いた進行型災害に対する避難判断支援の試み 査読

    谷口寿俊,川野浩平

    オペレーションズ・リサーチ   68 ( 9 )   478 - 484   2023年9月   ISSN:0030-3674

     詳細を見る

    記述言語:日本語   掲載種別:研究論文(学術雑誌)   出版者・発行元:公益社団法人 日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会  

    豪雨災害などの進行型災害において,自治体はさまざまな情報を基に避難情報発令の対象やタイミングを判断する必要がある.しかし,定性的な根拠に基づく判断では適切な避難情報発令は困難である.適切な避難情報発令には,定量的な根拠に基づいて判断を行うことが望ましい.そのためには,さまざまな情報から災害リスクを定量化して評価する必要がある.本稿では,避難時の災害リスクの定量化を目的として,避難所要時間に着目した災害リスクの新たな評価指標を開発するとともに,その避難判断支援における有用性について検討した事例について概説する.

  • 日時の変動を考慮した避難所要時間予測手法の提案とその活用による避難判断支援の検討

    川野浩平,孟楽,韓子双,Ibrahim Djamaluddin,菅原巧,本田博之,谷口寿俊,三谷泰浩

    土木情報学シンポジウム講演集   47   245 - 248   2022年9月

     詳細を見る

    担当区分:筆頭著者, 最終著者   記述言語:日本語   掲載種別:研究論文(研究会,シンポジウム資料等)   出版者・発行元:公益社団法人土木学会  

  • ランダムフォレストを用いた洪水氾濫動態の推定に関する研究 査読

    菅原巧,三谷泰浩,川野浩平,谷口寿俊,本田博之,堀真輝也,佐藤辰郎

    河川技術論文集   27   81 - 86   2021年6月   ISSN:2436-6714

     詳細を見る

    記述言語:日本語   掲載種別:研究論文(学術雑誌)   出版者・発行元:公益社団法人土木学会  

    DOI: 10.11532/river.27.0_81

▼全件表示

共同研究・競争的資金等の研究課題

  • 非GNSS環境下における点検結果の効率的なBIM/CIMモデル反映に関する研究

    研究課題/領域番号:21K14223  2021年 - 2023年

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業  若手研究

    川野 浩平

      詳細を見る

    担当区分:研究代表者  資金種別:科研費

    建設生産プロセスの各段階において情報を充実させた三次元モデルを用いることで,一連の建設生産・管理システム全体の効率化・高度化が期待されている。維持管理・更新段階においては,点検者の位置と方位の情報を用いることで効率的な点検結果(損傷箇所)の反映が期待できるが,非GNSS環境では位置情報の取得が容易ではないという問題がある。そこで,本研究では,維持管理・更新段階の点検結果(構造物の損傷箇所)を非GNSS環境下においてもBIM/CIMモデルへ効率的に反映する手法を開発する。さらに,過去に記録した損傷箇所や事前の点検計画で確認を要すると認めた箇所へ,点検作業者を効率的に誘導する手法を開発する。

    CiNii Research