2025/06/25 更新

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写真a

スガハラ タクミ
菅原 巧
SUGAHARA TAKUMI
所属
工学研究院 附属アジア防災研究センター 学術研究員
職名
学術研究員

論文

  • Impact Assessment of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Resolution on Drainage System Extraction and the Evaluation of Mass Movement Hazards in the Upper Catchment

    Akbar, AQ; Mitani, Y; Nakanishi, R; Djamaluddin, I; Sugahara, T

    GEOSCIENCES   14 ( 8 )   2024年8月   eISSN:2076-3263

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    出版者・発行元:Geosciences Switzerland  

    Worldwide, landslides claim many lives each year, with an average of 162.6 deaths reported in Japan from 1945 to 2019. There is growing concern about a potential increase in this number due to climate change. The primary source of shallow and rapid landslides within watersheds is the 0-order basins, which are located above the 1<sup>st</sup> order drainage system. These active geomorphological locations govern the frequency of mass movement. Despite the recognition of their importance, little attention has been paid to the role of 0-order basins in initiating landslides. Drainage systems can be extracted using the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) in GIS software. However, the effect of DEM resolution on the extraction of 1<sup>st</sup> order basins remains unexplained. This research develops an algorithm to assess the impact of DEM resolution on the extraction of first-order basins, channel head points, and the identification of approximate 0-order basins. The study includes algorithms to evaluate the correlation between DEM resolution and 1<sup>st</sup> order drainage system extraction using fuzzy classification techniques for approximate 0-order basins. The algorithm was applied in Toho Village, Fukuoka, Japan, defining the most appropriate DEM and stream definition threshold with an 86.48% accuracy and ±30 m error margin for channel head points. Critical slip surfaces were identified inside the 0-order basins and validated with a landslide inventory map with a 91% accuracy. The developed algorithms support hazard management and land use planning, providing valuable tools for sustainable development.

    DOI: 10.3390/geosciences14080223

    Web of Science

    Scopus

  • An Approach for Evacuation Vulnerability Assessment with Consideration of Predicted Evacuation Time

    Han, Z; Kawano, K; Djamaluddin, I; Sugahara, T; Honda, H; Taniguchi, H; Mitani, Y

    GEO-SUSTAINNOVATION FOR RESILIENT SOCIETY, CREST 2023   446   11 - 22   2024年   ISSN:2366-2557 ISBN:978-981-99-9221-8 eISSN:2366-2565

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    出版者・発行元:Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering  

    Heavy rainfall is a frequent and widespread severe weather hazard that may cause flood damage and human casualties. Since heavy rainfall is a progressive disaster, its scale and hazardous areas can be foreseen beforehand. Therefore, evacuating people from hazardous buildings to shelters in advance is an efficient effort to reduce casualties, but a scientific basis is still required. This paper proposes an approach for assessing each building’s evacuation vulnerability based on predicted evacuation time, aiming to support evacuation decision-making under heavy rainfall. As such, this paper applies Dijkstra’s algorithm to find the evacuation route from each building to accessible shelters. Moreover, a prediction model based on the random forest algorithm is developed to estimate their time-varying evacuation time. Road spatial and temporal characteristics that may affect evacuation time are used when developing the model. Finally, the proposed approach is implemented in Joso City, Japan, to verify its feasibility. As a result, the proposed approach accurately predicts and visualizes the evacuation time between each building and its optimal evacuation shelter. It also visually identifies the hard-to-evacuate buildings. The results indicate that the proposed approach can effectively reflect evacuation vulnerability and support heavy rainfall evacuation decision-making, which proves its validity and practicality.

    DOI: 10.1007/978-981-99-9219-5_2

    Web of Science

    Scopus

  • Estimating the Effects of Community Disaster Management Plan on Disaster Risk Reduction Literacy Using Propensity Score Analysis

    Sugahara, T; Fujimoto, S; Honda, H; Taniguchi, H; Fujihara, T; Mitani, Y

    GEO-SUSTAINNOVATION FOR RESILIENT SOCIETY, CREST 2023   446   355 - 366   2024年   ISSN:2366-2557 ISBN:978-981-99-9221-8 eISSN:2366-2565

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    出版者・発行元:Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering  

    Improving the disaster risk reduction literacy of residents is crucial for reducing the damage caused by serious disasters. This study aimed to investigate the impact of developing a community disaster management plan (CDMP) on residents’ disaster risk reduction literacy. To formulate the CDMP, a disaster risk communication workshop was conducted to collect information on existing disasters and discuss disaster risks in the community. The results were compiled into a risk map and timeline to support proactive disaster management activities by residents. The study assessed the effect of participation in the workshop on disaster risk reduction literacy, using a post-workshop questionnaire to survey participants. Propensity score analysis was employed to infer causal effects. The results showed that full participation in the workshop significantly increased participants’ understanding of disaster threats and improved disaster risk reduction literacy.

    DOI: 10.1007/978-981-99-9219-5_33

    Web of Science

    Scopus

  • 避難所要時間による定量的災害リスク評価と非難判断支援への適用

    孟 楽, 三谷 泰浩, 川野 浩平, 韓 子双, 菅原 巧, 谷口 寿俊, 本田 博之

    地域安全学会論文集   43 ( 0 )   9 - 17   2023年11月   ISSN:13452088 eISSN:21879842

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    記述言語:日本語   出版者・発行元:一般社団法人 地域安全学会  

    <p>During heavy rainfall disasters, quantitative assessments of disaster risk are necessary to support municipalities' decision to issue evacuation information and residents' decision on whether to evacuate has been noted. In this research, two disaster risk assessment methods are proposed for municipalities and residents, based on the evacuation time. Afterwards, in a flood scenario of Joso City, the lead-time of municipalities' evacuation decisions has been calculated by the municipality-oriented assessment method. Meanwhile, the temporal variation of evacuation difficulty of each resident has been quantified by resident-oriented assessment method. As a result, the proposed methods have been considered feasible to support the evacuation decisions of municipalities and residents.</p>

    DOI: 10.11314/jisss.43.9

    CiNii Research

  • Robust Weighted Partial Maximum Satisfiability Problem: Challenge to Σ<sub>2</sub><i><SUP>P</SUP></i>-Complete Problem

    Sugahara, T; Yamashita, K; Barrot, N; Koshimura, M; Yokoo, M

    PRICAI 2022: TRENDS IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, PT I   13629   17 - 31   2022年   ISSN:0302-9743 ISBN:978-3-031-20861-4 eISSN:1611-3349

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    出版者・発行元:Lecture Notes in Computer Science Including Subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics  

    This paper introduces a new problem called the Robust Maximum Satisfiability problem (R-MaxSAT), as well as its extension called the Robust weighted Partial MaxSAT (R-PMaxSAT). In R-MaxSAT (or R-PMaxSAT), a problem solver called defender hopes to maximize the number of satisfied clauses (or the sum of their weights) as the standard MaxSAT/partial MaxSAT problem, although she must ensure that the obtained solution is robust (In this paper, we use the pronoun “she” for the defender and “he” for the attacker). We assume an adversary called the attacker will flip some variables after the defender selects a solution. R-PMaxSAT can formalize the robust Clique Partitioning Problem (robust CPP), where CPP has many real-life applications. We first demonstrate that the decision version of R-MaxSAT is Σ2P -complete. Then, we develop two algorithms to solve R-PMaxSAT, by utilizing a state-of-the-art SAT solver or a Quantified Boolean Formula (QBF) solver as a subroutine. Our experimental results show that we can obtain optimal solutions within a reasonable amount of time for randomly generated R-MaxSAT instances with 30 variables and 150 clauses (within 40 s) and R-PMaxSAT instances based on CPP benchmark problems with 60 vertices (within 500 s).

    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-20862-1_2

    Web of Science

    Scopus

  • 機械学習を用いた氾濫域推定モデルの地域間比較に関する研究

    菅原 巧, 三谷 泰浩, 谷口 寿俊, 本田 博之, 堀真 輝也, 岩本 みさ, 佐藤 辰郎

    河川技術論文集   28 ( 0 )   43 - 48   2022年   eISSN:24366714

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    記述言語:日本語   出版者・発行元:公益社団法人 土木学会  

    <p>洪水氾濫による人的被害軽減のため,機械学習を活用した洪水氾濫予測に関する研究が進められている.筆者らはランダムフォレストを用いて地形と浸水の関係性から洪水氾濫域を推定する手法を提案し,高精度で鬼怒川内の氾濫を推定した.本研究では,同手法を用いて,地形条件の異なる複数の地域でモデル構築を行い,各地域での適用性を明らかとすることを目的とした.結果として,全対象地域における氾濫を高精度で推定可能であり,対象地域の地形的特徴によって氾濫推定の際に重要となる説明変数が異なることを明らかとした.さらに,本手法における汎化の試みとして,未学習地域への推定を行い,説明変数の寄与率に類似性がある場合は,ある程度良好な推定結果が得られることを明らかにした.</p>

    DOI: 10.11532/river.28.0_43

    CiNii Research

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