Kyushu University Academic Staff Educational and Research Activities Database
List of Papers
Andrew John Chapman Last modified date:2022.04.21

Associate Professor / Multiscale Science and Engineering for Energy and the Environment Thrust / International Institute for Carbon-Neutral Energy Research


Papers
1. Strengthening the Energy Policy Making Process and Sustainability Outcomes in the OECD through Policy Design.
2. Residential solar PV policy: An analysis of impacts, successes and failures in the Australian case
© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. Residential or 'rooftop' solar PV can play an important role in providing renewable energy, thus offsetting fossil fuel based generation and associated greenhouse gas emissions. In Australia, subsidies are offered to encourage the deployment of residential PV in the form of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) and Feed-in Tariffs (FiTs). This paper provides a literature review of existing work which assesses renewable energy in Australia, and delves deeper into a residential PV specific analysis of available data across the five criteria of installation, employment, market maturity, FiT settings and environmental outcomes to assess successes, failures and impacts of Australian residential PV policies between 2001 and 2012. This analysis identifies overall success with regard to environmental and deployment goals, and limited success in the goal of renewable energy industry promotion, which is devoid of indigenous manufacturing. In addition, impacts, including the dominance of the FiT as the initial stimulus for rapid PV deployment, cost impacts on electricity bills for various FiT settings, and the dependence of PV employment numbers on the continuation of the FiT are also identified. Finally, inequitable outcomes due to the FiT, such as cross-subsidisation from non-solar to solar households are also detailed..
3. Renewable Energy Policy Efficacy and Sustainability: The Role of Equity in Improving Energy Policy Outcomes.
4. Proposing an evaluation framework for energy policy making incorporating equity: Applications in Australia
© 2016 Elsevier Ltd The sustainability of energy policy performance is determined by a combination of environmental, economic and equity impacts on society. To date, analysis of the equity impacts of energy policy have been largely overlooked in favour of environmental and economic impacts. As equity is an important issue within sustainability and energy justice considerations, this paper sets out to provide a framework and methodology which allows an assessment of both policy effectiveness in terms of an environmental and economic evaluation, followed up by an assessment of resultant quantitative equity impacts on society, in order to engender a holistic policy sustainability evaluation. Following an investigation of prominent energy policy equity issues and Australian peoples preferences towards equity, multiple scenarios are evaluated for effectiveness within the Australian National Electricity Market. The results of this evaluation provide an evidence base for the development of an alternative energy scenario which addresses the identified equity issues whilst meeting policy goals. The equity evaluation demonstrates the comparative equity resultant from each scenario and identifies the apportioning of burden according to income level. The proposed evaluation processes allow the policy maker to develop policies sensitive to both effectiveness and equity, and can be applied in energy justice conscious jurisdictions..
5. Hydrogen import pathway comparison framework incorporating cost and social preference: Case studies from Australia to Japan
Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Recent proposals to produce and import hydrogen from Australia to Japan for electricity generation raise questions about how to compare the costs and feasibilities of different hydrogen import pathways. This paper establishes a framework for the comparison of technological, economic, and social costs and feasibility. The framework is then applied to 3 potential production and import case studies. First, a benchmark case study is considered which uses Australian brown coal from the Latrobe Valley combined with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology. The second and third comparative case studies use renewable energy and electrolysis near port facilities in Karratha, Western Australia, using solar power exclusively as the renewable energy source, and Gladstone, Queensland, using a combination of onshore wind and solar-based generation. The study finds that comparative pilot project generation costs for the brown coal pathway are between approximately 5.9 and 15.4 yen/kWh cheaper than for solar and/or wind-based pathways. However, limitations of scaling up CCS, a limited brown coal supply, long-term reducing costs of renewables, and the prospect to develop complementary renewable infrastructure make a strong counterargument for investment in solar and wind pathways as an alternative to brown coal and CCS..
6. Feed-in tariff pricing and social burden in Japan: Evaluating international learning through a policy transfer approach
© 2017 by the authors. Feed-in tariff (FiT) policy approaches for renewable energy (RE) deployment are employed in many nations around the world. Although FiTs are considered effective in boosting RE deployment, the issue of increasing energy bills and social burden is an often-reported negative impact of their use. The FiT has been employed in Japan since 2012, following after many developed countries, and, as was experienced in other nations, led to a social burden imparted on society significantly higher than initial government estimates. Although policy decision making does not necessarily reflect international policy experience, it is still prudent to ask how international policy experiences of social burden increase were considered within the Japanese approach. In this research, we analyzed the transfer process by adapting a conventional model to develop more objective observations than was previously possible, by setting a benchmark for evaluation based on prior international experiences. We identified two streams of policy transfer, each led by different actors; the government and representatives of the National Diet of Japan (Diet). Both actors were exposed to the same experiences, however the interpretation, application to policy development and priority settings employed were vastly different. Although the framework can only assess policy learning processes, we have found that the government undertook a reasonable and rational process toward learning, while, on the other hand, the modified bill developed by the Diet members did not thoroughly derive learnings in the same way, due to cognitive and political reasons, and specifically, the issue of limiting social burden was not addressed..
7. Biomass energy in Japan: Current status and future potential
© 2017, Engineering and Technology Publishing. All rights reserved. The Fukushima accident has pushed Japan to further develop its renewables initiative, particularly the biomass energy commodity. Their projection for the 2030 energy mix includes a biomass share of 4%. Further, a policy was introduced in 2002 called the Biomass Nippon Strategy. This was revised in 2006, fortifying the creation of Biomass Towns. Another major step forward came in 2009 with the Basic Act for the Promotion of Biomass Utilization. New goals were set with the introduction of the Basic Energy Plan. To meet the target, an agenda for the supply of domestic and imported biomass is needed. Domestic supply, such as wood pellets and agricultural residue has a small future potential. However for import scemes including wood and Palm Kernel Shell (PKS) from Indonesia and Malaysia are currently in place. There are also several future potential sources of biomass as yet untapped. In the future, the supply of biomass energy commodity could be increased to meet the target of 4% of the energy mix including comoddities such as biodiesel from sunflower, Jatropha Curcas as well as EFB (Empty fruit bunch), Sugarcane, Bagasse, Algae, Cotton seed, Coconut oil, Coconut Shell..
8. Visualizing the shape of society: An analysis of public bads and burden allocation due to household consumption using an input-output approach
© 2018 Elsevier B.V. This study investigates how our lifestyles can cause societal issue including a reduction in social equity due to the consumption of natural resources. Based on a range of household environmental footprints and their application to a quantitative social equity evaluation framework, a methodology is proposed which identifies the creation and origin of public bads within society. This research builds on the methodologies of energy policy sustainability evaluation incorporated with environmentally extended input output analysis in order to critically assess lifestyle-based consumption impacts, and to quantify the allocation of subsequent burdens across generations. Further, the proposed methodology is applied to a case study in Japan, an aging, shrinking population. Analysis identifies the increasing burden originating with elderly generations, and due to the resolution offered by the methodology, specifically identifies commodities and services which underpin these future burdens, allowing for policy implications to be drawn. The public bads and consumption burden indicator established through the described methodology is proposed as a footprint harmonizing tool to assess sustainability and supplement the footprint family..
9. Strategic and user-driven transition scenarios: Toward a low carbon society, encompassing the issues of sustainability and societal equity in Japan.
© 2017 Elsevier Ltd This study investigates the sustainability and social equity impacts of the ongoing transition toward a low carbon society in Japan to assess the merits of top-down and bottom-up approaches. The research uses mixed methods, incorporating householder and energy expert surveys, scenario design utilizing the Japanese MARKAL/TIMES framework, and sustainability and social equity evaluation. Surveys identify householder energy system and participation preferences, alongside energy expert input on social equity and policy design. Scenario building is undertaken to compare energy system outcomes between the strategic Japanese policy approach and a user driven approach to energy transition, both cognizant of 2050 environmental goals. Both scenarios are comparatively assessed using a holistic sustainability evaluation process. Conclusions identify the impact of liberalization and subsequent householder participation in the energy system in Japan, when compared to a strategic, policy driven approach. Both approaches have positive ramifications on social equity and policy burden distribution outcomes. However, the household participation scenario delivers a more equitable outcome, distributing energy policy burdens in a fairer manner through the realization of an energy system which is safe, stable and affordable. The findings have practical applications in participatory policy design, and the development of energy policy which can achieve transition goals while being sensitive to householder preferences and social equity concerns..
10. Social equity impacts in Japan's mega-solar siting process
© 2017 International Energy Initiative Japan's energy market has seen the siting and construction of over 2800 new mega-solar power plants since the introduction of the Feed-in Tariff policy in 2012 (Kitamoto, 2017). While scholars have highlighted the potential for community-engaged renewable power development with social benefits for local residents, many major mega-solar projects have instead resulted from industry-led initiatives in locations, largely avoiding community engagement. In this study, we draw from distributive energy justice perspectives to analyze social equity impacts of the mega-solar siting process. We employ qualitative content analysis on 29 survey responses from local officials around Japan's 200 largest mega-solar plants constructed since 2012 and contextualize results through 18 interviews with relevant actors in six case studies. We find that given the existence of the Feed-in Tariff and sufficient solar irradiation, the availability of underutilized land decreases community bargaining power compared to historical power plant siting agreements. This results in primarily land leasing benefits and municipal tax revenue with minimal additional social impacts, such as employment. We outline a model of causation for mega-solar social equity impacts, Japanese policy implications, and directions for future quantitative research..
11. Energy transition to a future low-carbon energy society in Japan's liberalizing electricity market: Precedents, policies and factors of successful transition
© 2017 Elsevier Ltd This paper investigates the precedents, policies and factors relevant to a successful energy regime transition which may be applied in the Japanese case, through a review of national leaders in renewable energy deployment. The examples of Germany, Italy and Spain are of particular note for their progress along the transition pathway toward a low carbon energy regime. Transition theory is used as a framework to enable this assessment, and exogenous impacts specific to Japan such as recent and ongoing market liberalization and the Fukushima nuclear incident are considered as pertinent factors which impact upon the transition landscape. Through a comparative assessment of policy approaches, technologies deployed, and social factors impacting upon deployment, lessons are drawn for comparison with current Japanese transition progress, identifying factors critical to the future estimation of the Japanese transition pathway. Future energy transition pathway projections will need to incorporate policy approaches and mechanisms as well as being cognizant of Japan's geographic and cost-competitive RE resource deployment limitations. These limitations alongside existing generation assets (including nuclear energy) are expected to have a significant impact upon Japan's transition from the current pre-development phase toward take-off, acceleration and the stabilization of a new, low-carbon energy regime..
12. Developing national frameworks for inclusive sustainable development incorporating lifestyle factor importance
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd Sustainable development is an important United Nations agenda, and the determination of which of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) should be prioritized is left up to each participating nation. Stakeholder engagement including all members of society can engender a nationally representative priority SDG set. This research investigates inclusive sustainable development which incorporates an approach to stakeholder engagement. The study assesses precedential scholarship of stakeholder engagement and sustainability evaluation, identifying a gap in terms of the inclusion of householder perceived importance of lifestyle related factors in sustainable development policy making and evaluation. Utilizing a case study of the aging, shrinking population of Japan, a representative, national survey of householders is undertaken, demonstrating that lifestyle relevant factors of sustainability approximate jurisdictionally important United Nations SDGs and help to identify priority targets within these goals. Perceived importance variety across household generations is also identified, providing guidance for policy makers in terms of age-relevant policy making and jurisdictionally important cultural factors. The framework proposed has applications in the case-study nation and is also readily applicable to other jurisdictions and for use in comparative studies..
13. Curiosity, economic and environmental reasoning: Public perceptions of liberalization and renewable energy transition in Japan
© 2017 Elsevier Ltd A public survey of energy users across Japan was conducted in March of 2017. It is almost one year since liberalization of the low voltage electricity market for households and small retail premises, for whom we identified an opportunity to play a positive role through their choices and participation in the energy market, which may influence the ongoing energy system restructure in Japan. The survey asked about changing to a new power provider, and about the installation of rooftop photovoltaic systems to identify the reasoning behind these choices. Additionally, future hypothetical energy scenarios were tested. The results show that a significant portion of the public make participatory decisions to gain an economic benefit, while another group appears curious about new technology, seeking information before reaching a decision in order to satisfy their curiosity. Both groups are larger than the third significant group, whose decision making is guided by environmental reasoning. The results also show that a large portion of the public are relatively conservative in their energy choices, leading to a very passive approach, while a small portion of respondents demonstrated a more active stance. These findings have ramifications for the future energy system and implications for energy policy development..
14. Farabi-Asl H, Chapman A, Itaoka K, Jalilinsrabady S, Mohammadzadeh Bina S, CO2 Emission Reduction of Ground Source Heat Pump System in Cold Climate of Japan, Japan council for Renewable Energy, 10.24752/gre.1.0_4, 4, 2018.06.
15. An analysis of urban environmental Kuznets curve of CO2 emissions: Empirical analysis of 276 global metropolitan areas
© 2018 This study analyzed the relationship between urban CO2 emissions and economic growth applying the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. The objective of this study is to investigate how urban CO2 emissions and their composition have changed with urban economic growth, depending on city characteristics, using a dataset of metropolitan areas. We obtained data for 276 cities in 26 countries for the years 2000, 2005, and 2008. The dataset includes urban CO2 emissions, GDP, and population. Additionally, data regarding compact city variables are applied to determinants analysis using an econometric approach. The results demonstrate an inverted U-shape relationship between urban CO2 emissions and urban economic growth. Additionally, an inverted U-shape relationship is observed for the transport and residential & industry sectors. However, the turning points of each inverted U-shape curve varies. This result implies that we can better understand urban policies for reducing urban CO2 emissions by considering the characteristics of each sector..
16. Japan’s mega solar boom: quantifying social equity expectations and realities at the local scale
© 2018, Springer Japan KK, part of Springer Nature. This research aims to quantitatively identify the variation in equity and burden distribution associated with mega-solar siting at the local level in Japan, and to identify mega-solar siting outcomes in each region and prefecture, in terms of social equity and burden distribution outcomes relative to stated preferences. Methodologies employed include survey and interviews to identify critical energy policy factors associated with mega-solar siting, and their perceived importance according to local officials associated with deployment. Building on the critical factor and important findings from 29 of Japan’s largest 200 mega-solar sites, a quantitative analysis of social equity outcomes in terms of health, environmental improvement, electricity prices, employment and community development is undertaken. Additionally, an analysis of the burden distribution resultant from mega-solar deployment in each region is undertaken. In all cases explored, mega-solar deployment leads to an improvement in social equity levels, with desirable burden distribution which closes the gap between rich and poor. Regional and local factors impact upon the comparative equity and burden distribution outcomes between sites, notably pre-existing particulate matter concentrations and employment changes between fossil fuel and renewable industries, and the reduction of electricity tariffs. These findings identify challenges and opportunities for policy makers and the proactive, equitable deployment of mega solar based on national, regional and local attributes..
17. A review of four case studies assessing the potential for hydrogen penetration of the future energy system
© 2019 Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC Hydrogen as an energy carrier allows the decarbonization of transport, industry, and space heating as well as storage for intermittent renewable energy. The objective of this paper is to assess the future engineering potential for hydrogen and provide insight to areas of research to help lower economic barriers for hydrogen adoption. This assessment was accomplished by creating top-level system models based on energy requirements for end-use services. Those models were used to investigate four case studies that provide a global view augmented with specific national examples. The first case study assesses the potential penetration of hydrogen using a global energy system model. The second applies the dynamic integrated climate–ecosystem–economics model to derive an estimate of the impact of the diffusion of hydrogen as an energy carrier. The third determines the required growth in renewable power and water usage to power transportation in the United States (US) with hydrogen. The fourth assesses the use of hydrogen for heating in the United Kingdom (UK). In all cases, there appeared to be significant potential for hydrogen adoption and net energetic benefit. Globally, hydrogen has the potential to account for approximately 3% of energy consumption by 2050. In the US, using hydrogen for on-road transportation could enable a reduction in rejected energy of nearly 10%. Also, hydrogen might provide the least cost alternative to decarbonizing space heating in the UK. The research highlights a challenge raised by widespread abandonment of nuclear power. It is currently unclear what the removal of nuclear would do to the cost of energy as nations attempt to limit global greenhouse gas emissions. Nuclear power has also been proposed as a source for large scale production of hydrogen. Finally, this analysis shows that with today's technological maturity making the transition to a hydrogen economy would incur significant costs..
18. Yosuke Shigetomi, Andrew Chapman, Keisuke Nansai, Ken’ichi Matsumoto, Susumu Tohno, Quantifying lifestyle based social equity implications for national sustainable development policy, Environmental Research Letters, 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9142, 15, 8, 084044-084044, 2020.08.
19. Yugo Tanaka, Andrew Chapman, Tetsuo Tezuka, Shigeki Sakurai, Multiple Streams and Power Sector Policy Change
Evidence from the Feed-in Tariff Policy Process in Japan, Politics and Policy, 10.1111/polp.12357, 48, 3, 464-489, 2020.06, Sustainability concerns have been placing public policy in the power sector under pressure to realize a radical change. However, energy policy is often subject to strong path dependency and inertia that make such change difficult. This study contributes to the theoretical understanding of the conditions under which radical policy changes happen in the power sector, based on the Multiple Streams Approach. Through a case study of the Feed-in Tariff program for increasing renewable energy deployment in Japan, it is elucidated that the elevation of the generous program, which is fundamentally incompatible to previous policy processes, was a result of the intersection of problem, policy, and politics streams. The findings provide strong evidence to support our claim that political parties embrace a policy proposal that is not necessarily “softened” within the policy network when an existing policy community itself is perceived as a problem. Related Articles: Brant, Hanna K., Nathan Myers, and Katherine L. Runge. 2017. “Promotion, Protection, and Entrepreneurship: Stakeholder Participation and Policy Change in the 21st Century Cures Initiative.” Politics & Policy 45 (3): 372-404. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12201. Morris, Mary Hallock. 2007. “The Political Strategies of Winning and Losing Coalitions: Agricultural and Environmental Groups in the Debate over Hypoxia.” Politics & Policy 35 (4): 836-871. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2007.00086.x. Rawat, Pragati, and John Charles Morris. 2016. “Kingdon's ‘Streams’ Model at Thirty: Still Relevant in the 21st Century?” Politics & Policy 44 (4): 608-638. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12168..
20. Timothy Fraser, Andrew J. Chapman, Drivers of social equity in renewable energy at the municipal level
the case of local Japanese energy policy and preferences, Journal of Environmental Policy and Planning, 10.1080/1523908X.2020.1740659, 22, 3, 397-412, 2020.05, Recent research has allowed us to quantify the costs and benefits of adopting renewable energy in specific municipalities, but how do these outcomes vary among communities at the national scale? This study uses survey responses from 47 Japanese municipalities to model these impacts and identifies key technological, social, and demographic factors that shape which communities benefit more from the renewable energy transition. On average, introducing renewable energy improves social equity, any financial burden on electricity prices is born most by wealthier residents, not the poor, and towns are predisposed to benefit from renewables no matter the amount introduced. To improve these impacts, towns can increase the amount of solar they host, or they can adjust the amount of CO2 emissions, PM emissions, tax revenue, jobs gained, or unpopular renewable power plants in their town. However, preferences and demographics matter as well. Age, education, and local preferences in favor of employment and community development all significantly relate to equity potential outcomes. Policymakers should consider adjusting their local energy priorities using these levers if they hope to engineer a renewable energy transition that is both positive and popular for their constituents..
21. Andrew Chapman, Kenshi Itaoka, Hadi Farabi-Asl, Yasumasa Fujii, Masaru Nakahara, Societal penetration of hydrogen into the future energy system
Impacts of policy, technology and carbon targets, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2019.12.112, 45, 7, 3883-3898, 2020.02, Decarbonization of the energy system is a key goal of the Paris Agreements, in order to limit temperature rises to under 2° Celsius. Hydrogen has the potential to play a key role through its versatile production methods, end uses and as a storage medium for renewable energy, engendering the future low-carbon energy system. This research uses a global model cognizant of energy policy, technology learning curves and international carbon reduction targets to optimize the future energy system in terms of cost and carbon emissions to the year 2050. Exploring combinations of four exploratory scenarios incorporating hydrogen city gas blend levels, nuclear restrictions, regional emission reduction obligations and carbon capture and storage deployment timelines, it was identified that hydrogen has the potential to supply approximately two percent of global energy needs by 2050. Irrespective of the quantity of hydrogen produced, the transport sector and passenger fuel cell vehicles are consistently a preferential end use for future hydrogen across regions and modeled scenarios. In addition to the potential contribution of hydrogen, a shift toward renewable energy and a significant role for carbon capture and storage is identified to underpin carbon target achievement by 2050..
22. Yosuke Shigetomi, Hajime Ohno, Andrew Chapman, Hidemichi Fujii, Keisuke Nansai, Yasuhiro Fukushima, Clarifying Demographic Impacts on Embodied and Materially Retained Carbon toward Climate Change Mitigation, Environmental Science and Technology, 10.1021/acs.est.9b02603, 53, 24, 14123-14133, 2019.12, Modern lifestyles demand a number of products derived from petroleum-based sources that eventually cause carbon emissions. The quantification of lifestyle and household consumption impacts upon carbon emissions from both the embodied CO2 (EC) and materially retained carbon (MRC) viewpoints is critical to deriving amelioration policies and meeting emission reduction goals. This study, for the first time, details a methodology to estimate both EC and MRC for Japan, focusing on petrochemicals and woody products utilizing the time series input-output table, physical value tables and the national survey of family income and expenditure, leveraging time series input-output-based material flow analysis (IO-MFA), and structural decomposition analysis (SDA). Findings elucidated hot spots of deleterious consumption by age of householder and the critical factors which underpin them including intensity effects, pattern effects, and demographic shifts over time. Although demographic shifts associated with an aging, shrinking population in Japan decreased EC and MRC, the negative effect reduced in size over time during 1990-2005. Policy implications identify the potential to mitigate approximately 21% of required household emission reductions by 2030 through strategies including recycling initiatives and the recovery of carbon from products covered within current recycling laws and hot spot sectors which are not currently considered such as apparel..
23. Andrew Chapman, Shinichiro Okushima, Engendering an inclusive low-carbon energy transition in Japan
Considering the perspectives and awareness of the energy poor, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111017, 135, 2019.12, Engendering a low-carbon energy transition is necessary to limit climate change impacts and temperature rises. Ideally, this transition would be inclusive, incorporating all stakeholders, however, the issue of energy or fuel poverty is a major obstacle to this goal. This research investigates energy poverty in Japan using a subjective, multidimensional energy poverty measure, clarifying the linkages between energy poverty and an inclusive, just transition in terms of energy system and policy awareness, behavior and preferences. Through the analysis of an original survey, we uncover that there is a marked difference between low-income and energy poverty households’ environmental awareness, and their subsequent attitude toward the low-carbon energy transition. Currently, the energy poor have a negative attitude toward the low-carbon energy transition in Japan, causing a lack of self-reported engagement which will not engender an inclusive, just transition. Our findings suggest that if the Japanese low-carbon energy transition were to be inclusive, a further 5 percent of households could participate in the low-carbon energy transition through access to solar or renewable energy capital. Findings identify the need for policies targeted at the energy poor, specifically promoting access to solar capital and low-carbon technologies, in addition to existing policies targeted at low-income households..
24. Dinh Hoa Nguyen, Andrew Chapman, Hadi Farabi-Asl, Nation-wide emission trading model for economically feasible carbon reduction in Japan, Applied Energy, 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113869, 255, 2019.12, The issue of climate change and the development of international agreements around carbon targets such as the Paris agreement have engendered the prospect of a carbon constrained future. As a result, individual nations who are signatory to the Paris Agreement have developed ambitious carbon reduction targets in order to restrict temperature rises to two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. To achieve these ambitious goals, nations have a variety of policy approaches at their disposal including feed in tariffs, fossil fuel restrictions, carbon capture and storage, renewable portfolio standards and carbon trading regimes. This study investigates carbon trading, and, using Japan as a case study assesses the economic feasibility and environmental efficiency of a carbon trading scheme underpinned by renewable energy deployment. The model employed uses an optimization approach, cognizant of technological, geographic and economic constraints. Findings identify that such an approach incorporating the 47 prefectures of Japan could engender a 42% reduction in emissions without resilience constraints and 34% incorporating a best-mix, resilient approach. Both approaches prove feasible at moderate carbon prices, considering international norms. The findings underpin policy implications for a future national Japanese emission trading scheme to improve previous single prefecture attempts which did not engender carbon trading..
25. Andrew Chapman, Hadi Farabi-Asl, DInh Hoa Nguyen, Kenshi Itaoka, Global modelling of hydrogen penetration
Fuel cell vehicles and infrastructure in a carbon constrained future, 2019 IEEE Vehicle Power and Propulsion Conference, VPPC 2019 2019 IEEE Vehicle Power and Propulsion Conference, VPPC 2019 - Proceedings, 10.1109/VPPC46532.2019.8952398, 2019.10, This research details a global model for the estimation of future hydrogen penetration into the carbon constrained energy system out to 2050. Results show that approximately 2.2% of global energy consumption needs can be met by 2050, with significant contributions in the city gas network and transportation sector. Notably, passenger FCVs dominate the transportation sector contribution, leading to a global deployment of over 100 million FCVs by 2050 across North America, Western Europe, South East Asia, China and Japan. Hydrogen production is focused in non- OECD nations, and derived mainly from fossil fuels. As a result, CCS has a strong role to play in the future energy system in order to underpin the deployment of a significant fleet of FCVs. Policy issues identified include the need for significant additional investment in the energy system and technological progress in renewables and electrolyzers to realize a shift away from a fossil fuel dominated hydrogen economy..
26. Yuzhuo Huang, Yosuke Shigetomi, Andrew Chapman, Kenichi Matsumoto, Uncovering household carbon footprint drivers in an aging, shrinking society, Energies, 10.3390/en12193745, 12, 19, 2019.09, In order to meet climate change mitigation goals, nations such as Japan need to consider strategies to reduce the impact that lifestyles have on overall emission levels. This study analyzes carbon footprints from household consumption (i.e., lifestyles) using index and structural decomposition analysis for the time period from 1990 to 2005. The analysis identified that households in their 40s and 50s had the highest levels of both direct and indirect CO2 emissions, with decomposition identifying consumption patterns as the driving force behind these emissions and advances in CO2 reduction technology having a reducing effect on lifestyle emissions. An additional challenge addressed by this study is the aging, shrinking population phenomenon in Japan. The increase in the number of few-member and elderly households places upward pressure on emissions as the aging population and declining national birth rate continues. The analysis results offer two mitigatory policy suggestions: the focusing of carbon reduction policies on older and smaller households, and the education of consumers toward low-carbon consumption habits. As the aging, shrinking population phenomenon is not unique to Japan, the findings of this research have broad applications globally where these demographic shifts are being experienced..
27. Ran Motoori, Benjamin McLellan, Andrew Chapman, Tetsuo Tezuka, Resource security strategies and their environmental and economic implications
A case study of copper production in Japan, Energies, 10.3390/en12153021, 14, 15, 2019.08, Japan is a nation which is highly dependent on the import of raw materials to supply its manufacturing industry, notable among them copper. When extracting copper from ore, a large amount of energy is required, typically leading to high levels of CO2 emissions due to the fossil fuel-dominated energy mix. Moreover, maintaining security of raw material supply is difficult if imports are the only source utilized. This study examines the environmental and economic impacts of domestic mineral production from the recycling of end-of-life products and deep ocean mining as strategies to reduce CO2 emissions and enhance security of raw material supplies. The results indicate that under the given assumptions, recycling, which is typically considered to be less CO2 intensive, produces higher domestic emissions than current copper processing, although across the whole supply chain shows promise. As the total quantity of domestic resources from deep ocean ores are much smaller than the potential from recycling, it is possible that recycling could become a mainstream supply alternative, while deep ocean mining is more likely to be a niche supply source. Implications of a progressively aging society and flow-on impacts for the recycling sector are discussed..
28. Andrew John Chapman, Hidemichi Fujii, Shunsuke Managi, Multinational life satisfaction, perceived inequality and energy affordability, Nature Sustainability, 10.1038/s41893-019-0303-5, 2, 6, 508-514, 2019.06, We analyse subjective experiences of energy poverty to address the limitations of existing observable indicators as evidence for policy. We investigate the linkage between self-reported energy affordability and life satisfaction, health and economic inequality. A large-scale survey of 100,956 respondents across 37 nations shows that energy affordability concerns individuals in both developing and developed nations. Self-reported (perceived) values do not necessarily follow previous research and vary according to regional, economic, development and cultural factors. Contrasting this evidence with national-level data, such as healthy life expectancy and government spending on health and welfare, we identify associations between self-reported outcomes, income levels and national policy. Although national welfare spending can reduce the perceived economic gap, high income is not necessarily associated with better perceived satisfaction, health or economic outcomes. Enhancing energy access may lead to improved health outcomes in the most marginalized nations; however, lifestyle and cultural factors also play a role. Although the outcomes of less-developed nations can likely improve through development aid from more-developed nations, our results show that cultural and other factors underpin satisfaction in developing nations, which experience comparatively poorer life satisfaction. We identified that some nations had superior outcomes for health and life satisfaction despite lower income levels. This highlights the need for further research to uncover non-income-based factors that underlie life satisfaction and health, such as community connectedness or familial factors..
29. Andrew John Chapman, Kenshi Itaoka, Katsuhiko Hirose, F. Todd Davidson, Kazunori Nagasawa, Alan C. Lloyd, Michael E. Webber, Zeynep Kurban, Shunsuke Managi, Tetsuya Tamaki, Michael C. Lewis, Robert E. Hebner, Yasumasa Fujii, A review of four case studies assessing the potential for hydrogen penetration of the future energy system, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2019.01.168, 44, 13, 6371-6382, 2019.03, Hydrogen as an energy carrier allows the decarbonization of transport, industry, and space heating as well as storage for intermittent renewable energy. The objective of this paper is to assess the future engineering potential for hydrogen and provide insight to areas of research to help lower economic barriers for hydrogen adoption. This assessment was accomplished by creating top-level system models based on energy requirements for end-use services. Those models were used to investigate four case studies that provide a global view augmented with specific national examples. The first case study assesses the potential penetration of hydrogen using a global energy system model. The second applies the dynamic integrated climate–ecosystem–economics model to derive an estimate of the impact of the diffusion of hydrogen as an energy carrier. The third determines the required growth in renewable power and water usage to power transportation in the United States (US) with hydrogen. The fourth assesses the use of hydrogen for heating in the United Kingdom (UK). In all cases, there appeared to be significant potential for hydrogen adoption and net energetic benefit. Globally, hydrogen has the potential to account for approximately 3% of energy consumption by 2050. In the US, using hydrogen for on-road transportation could enable a reduction in rejected energy of nearly 10%. Also, hydrogen might provide the least cost alternative to decarbonizing space heating in the UK. The research highlights a challenge raised by widespread abandonment of nuclear power. It is currently unclear what the removal of nuclear would do to the cost of energy as nations attempt to limit global greenhouse gas emissions. Nuclear power has also been proposed as a source for large scale production of hydrogen. Finally, this analysis shows that with today's technological maturity making the transition to a hydrogen economy would incur significant costs..
30. Andrew John Chapman, Timothy Fraser, Japan’s mega solar boom
quantifying social equity expectations and realities at the local scale, Sustainability Science, 10.1007/s11625-018-0613-y, 14, 2, 355-374, 2019.03, This research aims to quantitatively identify the variation in equity and burden distribution associated with mega-solar siting at the local level in Japan, and to identify mega-solar siting outcomes in each region and prefecture, in terms of social equity and burden distribution outcomes relative to stated preferences. Methodologies employed include survey and interviews to identify critical energy policy factors associated with mega-solar siting, and their perceived importance according to local officials associated with deployment. Building on the critical factor and important findings from 29 of Japan’s largest 200 mega-solar sites, a quantitative analysis of social equity outcomes in terms of health, environmental improvement, electricity prices, employment and community development is undertaken. Additionally, an analysis of the burden distribution resultant from mega-solar deployment in each region is undertaken. In all cases explored, mega-solar deployment leads to an improvement in social equity levels, with desirable burden distribution which closes the gap between rich and poor. Regional and local factors impact upon the comparative equity and burden distribution outcomes between sites, notably pre-existing particulate matter concentrations and employment changes between fossil fuel and renewable industries, and the reduction of electricity tariffs. These findings identify challenges and opportunities for policy makers and the proactive, equitable deployment of mega solar based on national, regional and local attributes..
31. Hadi Farabi-Asl, Andrew John Chapman, Kenshi Itaoka, Younes Noorollahi, Ground source heat pump status and supportive energy policies in Japan, 10th International Conference on Applied Energy, ICAE 2018 Energy Procedia, 10.1016/j.egypro.2019.01.902, 158, 3614-3619, 2019.01, Ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems are energy-efficient technologies to provide low-carbon heating and cooling demands for the buildings. However, deployment of the GSHP systems in Japan is limited mainly due to the relatively high drilling costs for placement of the ground heat exchangers (GHEs), in comparison with EU and North American countries. This study is providing the historical data of deployment of different types of the GSHP systems in Japan, the supportive public policies and incentives for installation of GSHP systems. Finally, the barriers for the further utilization of the GSHP systems in Japanese buildings are discussed and solutions are suggested..
32. Hadi Farabi-Asl, Andrew John Chapman, Kenshi Itaoka, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Low-carbon water and space heating using solar energy, Japan's experience, 10th International Conference on Applied Energy, ICAE 2018 Energy Procedia, 10.1016/j.egypro.2019.01.234, 158, 947-952, 2019.01, Considerable amount of energy is being consumed in the buildings worldwide. Space and water heating have big share in building energy consumption, account for 53.2% and 28.1% in Japanese residential and commercial buildings at 2015, respectively. Solar heating is a reliable and mature technology that experienced its remarkable success in Japan during late-1970s and early-1980s. However, during last 30 years, the number of installations in Japan is decreased, even after 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster and energy challenge in Japan. This study is presenting a historical review on the solar heating market status, policy, and research trends in Japan with focus on the Japan's glorious solar heating market at 1980's. The reasons and barriers for further deployment of solar thermal technology are investigated and suggestions are presented..
33. Andrew John Chapman, Yosuke Shigetomi, Developing national frameworks for inclusive sustainable development incorporating lifestyle factor importance, Journal of Cleaner Production, 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.07.302, 200, 39-47, 2018.11, Sustainable development is an important United Nations agenda, and the determination of which of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) should be prioritized is left up to each participating nation. Stakeholder engagement including all members of society can engender a nationally representative priority SDG set. This research investigates inclusive sustainable development which incorporates an approach to stakeholder engagement. The study assesses precedential scholarship of stakeholder engagement and sustainability evaluation, identifying a gap in terms of the inclusion of householder perceived importance of lifestyle related factors in sustainable development policy making and evaluation. Utilizing a case study of the aging, shrinking population of Japan, a representative, national survey of householders is undertaken, demonstrating that lifestyle relevant factors of sustainability approximate jurisdictionally important United Nations SDGs and help to identify priority targets within these goals. Perceived importance variety across household generations is also identified, providing guidance for policy makers in terms of age-relevant policy making and jurisdictionally important cultural factors. The framework proposed has applications in the case-study nation and is also readily applicable to other jurisdictions and for use in comparative studies..
34. Hidemichi Fujii, Kazuyuki Iwata, Andrew John Chapman, Shigemi Kagawa, Shunsuke Managi, An analysis of urban environmental Kuznets curve of CO
2
emissions
Empirical analysis of 276 global metropolitan areas, Applied Energy, 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.06.158, 228, 1561-1568, 2018.10, This study analyzed the relationship between urban CO
2
emissions and economic growth applying the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. The objective of this study is to investigate how urban CO
2
emissions and their composition have changed with urban economic growth, depending on city characteristics, using a dataset of metropolitan areas. We obtained data for 276 cities in 26 countries for the years 2000, 2005, and 2008. The dataset includes urban CO
2
emissions, GDP, and population. Additionally, data regarding compact city variables are applied to determinants analysis using an econometric approach. The results demonstrate an inverted U-shape relationship between urban CO
2
emissions and urban economic growth. Additionally, an inverted U-shape relationship is observed for the transport and residential & industry sectors. However, the turning points of each inverted U-shape curve varies. This result implies that we can better understand urban policies for reducing urban CO
2
emissions by considering the characteristics of each sector..
35. Andrew John Chapman, Yosuke Shigetomi, Visualizing the shape of society
An analysis of public bads and burden allocation due to household consumption using an input-output approach, Science of the Total Environment, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.151, 639, 385-396, 2018.10, This study investigates how our lifestyles can cause societal issue including a reduction in social equity due to the consumption of natural resources. Based on a range of household environmental footprints and their application to a quantitative social equity evaluation framework, a methodology is proposed which identifies the creation and origin of public bads within society. This research builds on the methodologies of energy policy sustainability evaluation incorporated with environmentally extended input output analysis in order to critically assess lifestyle-based consumption impacts, and to quantify the allocation of subsequent burdens across generations. Further, the proposed methodology is applied to a case study in Japan, an aging, shrinking population. Analysis identifies the increasing burden originating with elderly generations, and due to the resolution offered by the methodology, specifically identifies commodities and services which underpin these future burdens, allowing for policy implications to be drawn. The public bads and consumption burden indicator established through the described methodology is proposed as a footprint harmonizing tool to assess sustainability and supplement the footprint family..
36. Andrew John Chapman, Benjamin C. McLellan, Tetsuo Tezuka, Prioritizing mitigation efforts considering co-benefits, equity and energy justice
Fossil fuel to renewable energy transition pathways, Applied Energy, 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.03.054, 219, 187-198, 2018.06, Transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy (RE) is one of the core strategies in developing sustainable future energy systems. But in planning such a transition, it is common to consider primarily cost and greenhouse gas reduction, as typified by cost-mitigation curves that have become widespread. Such assessments tend to leave important considerations of energy justice on the periphery. This paper puts forward an alternative assessment technique, incorporating various indicators of social equity in order to assess the priority of power plant replacement that would lead to the greatest improvement in benefits, while placing the burden of system changes away from the most vulnerable. An example of the application of this approach is presented for prioritization of the retirement and replacement (with RE) of Australia s ageing fleet of coal-fired power plants. The assessment shows very different results from a standard cost-mitigation approach, with the retirement of the large brown coal power plants (including the recently retired Hazelwood power plant) and the replacement with wind power (where applicable) promoting the best overall outcomes on both cost and equity. Considering a selection of high priority indicators with many locally-specific data sets, the approach adds significant contextual relevance to prioritization, and is considered to offer useful findings for policy-makers..
37. Andrew John Chapman, Kenshi Itaoka, Curiosity, economic and environmental reasoning
Public perceptions of liberalization and renewable energy transition in Japan, Energy Research and Social Science, 10.1016/j.erss.2017.09.026, 37, 102-110, 2018.03, A public survey of energy users across Japan was conducted in March of 2017. It is almost one year since liberalization of the low voltage electricity market for households and small retail premises, for whom we identified an opportunity to play a positive role through their choices and participation in the energy market, which may influence the ongoing energy system restructure in Japan. The survey asked about changing to a new power provider, and about the installation of rooftop photovoltaic systems to identify the reasoning behind these choices. Additionally, future hypothetical energy scenarios were tested. The results show that a significant portion of the public make participatory decisions to gain an economic benefit, while another group appears curious about new technology, seeking information before reaching a decision in order to satisfy their curiosity. Both groups are larger than the third significant group, whose decision making is guided by environmental reasoning. The results also show that a large portion of the public are relatively conservative in their energy choices, leading to a very passive approach, while a small portion of respondents demonstrated a more active stance. These findings have ramifications for the future energy system and implications for energy policy development..
38. Timothy Fraser, Andrew John Chapman, Social equity impacts in Japan's mega-solar siting process, Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2017.11.002, 42, 136-151, 2018.02, Japan's energy market has seen the siting and construction of over 2800 new mega-solar power plants since the introduction of the Feed-in Tariff policy in 2012 (Kitamoto, 2017). While scholars have highlighted the potential for community-engaged renewable power development with social benefits for local residents, many major mega-solar projects have instead resulted from industry-led initiatives in locations, largely avoiding community engagement. In this study, we draw from distributive energy justice perspectives to analyze social equity impacts of the mega-solar siting process. We employ qualitative content analysis on 29 survey responses from local officials around Japan's 200 largest mega-solar plants constructed since 2012 and contextualize results through 18 interviews with relevant actors in six case studies. We find that given the existence of the Feed-in Tariff and sufficient solar irradiation, the availability of underutilized land decreases community bargaining power compared to historical power plant siting agreements. This results in primarily land leasing benefits and municipal tax revenue with minimal additional social impacts, such as employment. We outline a model of causation for mega-solar social equity impacts, Japanese policy implications, and directions for future quantitative research..
39. Andrew John Chapman, Kenshi Itaoka, Energy transition to a future low-carbon energy society in Japan's liberalizing electricity market
Precedents, policies and factors of successful transition, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 10.1016/j.rser.2017.06.011, 81, 2019-2027, 2018.01, This paper investigates the precedents, policies and factors relevant to a successful energy regime transition which may be applied in the Japanese case, through a review of national leaders in renewable energy deployment. The examples of Germany, Italy and Spain are of particular note for their progress along the transition pathway toward a low carbon energy regime. Transition theory is used as a framework to enable this assessment, and exogenous impacts specific to Japan such as recent and ongoing market liberalization and the Fukushima nuclear incident are considered as pertinent factors which impact upon the transition landscape. Through a comparative assessment of policy approaches, technologies deployed, and social factors impacting upon deployment, lessons are drawn for comparison with current Japanese transition progress, identifying factors critical to the future estimation of the Japanese transition pathway. Future energy transition pathway projections will need to incorporate policy approaches and mechanisms as well as being cognizant of Japan's geographic and cost-competitive RE resource deployment limitations. These limitations alongside existing generation assets (including nuclear energy) are expected to have a significant impact upon Japan's transition from the current pre-development phase toward take-off, acceleration and the stabilization of a new, low-carbon energy regime..
40. Andrew John Chapman, Hidemichi Fujii, Shunsuke Managi, Key drivers for cooperation toward sustainable development and the management of CO2 emissions
Comparative analysis of six Northeast Asian countries, Sustainability (Switzerland), 10.3390/su10010244, 10, 1, 2018.01, This study analyzes the key drivers of the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in six Northeast Asian countries (China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Mongolia, and Russia) from 1991 to 2015. We apply a decomposition analysis approach using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index to identify the main contributing factors toward CO2 emission changes. To discuss the decomposition results in more in detail, we explain the energy portfolio change in each country to understand the energy and resource utilization strategy. From the results, we find that the key driving factors of CO2 emissions change and energy portfolio trends are different among Northeast Asian countries, driven by economic growth in China and Korea, reduced by energy efficiency improvements in Russia and the DPRK, while being relatively benign in Japan and Mongolia due to a combination of these factors. This result implies that we can better understand the regional cooperation policy for improving each driving factor to achieve sustainable development and management of CO2 emissions considering the characteristics of each country..
41. Andrew John Chapman, Nugroho Agung Pambudi, Strategic and user-driven transition scenarios
Toward a low carbon society, encompassing the issues of sustainability and societal equity in Japan., Journal of Cleaner Production, 10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.10.225, 172, 1014-1024, 2018.01, This study investigates the sustainability and social equity impacts of the ongoing transition toward a low carbon society in Japan to assess the merits of top-down and bottom-up approaches. The research uses mixed methods, incorporating householder and energy expert surveys, scenario design utilizing the Japanese MARKAL/TIMES framework, and sustainability and social equity evaluation. Surveys identify householder energy system and participation preferences, alongside energy expert input on social equity and policy design. Scenario building is undertaken to compare energy system outcomes between the strategic Japanese policy approach and a user driven approach to energy transition, both cognizant of 2050 environmental goals. Both scenarios are comparatively assessed using a holistic sustainability evaluation process. Conclusions identify the impact of liberalization and subsequent householder participation in the energy system in Japan, when compared to a strategic, policy driven approach. Both approaches have positive ramifications on social equity and policy burden distribution outcomes. However, the household participation scenario delivers a more equitable outcome, distributing energy policy burdens in a fairer manner through the realization of an energy system which is safe, stable and affordable. The findings have practical applications in participatory policy design, and the development of energy policy which can achieve transition goals while being sensitive to householder preferences and social equity concerns..
42. Yugo Tanaka, Andrew John Chapman, Shigeki Sakurai, Tetsuo Tezuka, Feed-in tariff pricing and social burden in Japan
Evaluating international learning through a policy transfer approach, Social Sciences, 10.3390/socsci6040127, 6, 4, 2017.10, Feed-in tariff (FiT) policy approaches for renewable energy (RE) deployment are employed in many nations around the world. Although FiTs are considered effective in boosting RE deployment, the issue of increasing energy bills and social burden is an often-reported negative impact of their use. The FiT has been employed in Japan since 2012, following after many developed countries, and, as was experienced in other nations, led to a social burden imparted on society significantly higher than initial government estimates. Although policy decision making does not necessarily reflect international policy experience, it is still prudent to ask how international policy experiences of social burden increase were considered within the Japanese approach. In this research, we analyzed the transfer process by adapting a conventional model to develop more objective observations than was previously possible, by setting a benchmark for evaluation based on prior international experiences. We identified two streams of policy transfer, each led by different actors; the government and representatives of the National Diet of Japan (Diet). Both actors were exposed to the same experiences, however the interpretation, application to policy development and priority settings employed were vastly different. Although the framework can only assess policy learning processes, we have found that the government undertook a reasonable and rational process toward learning, while, on the other hand, the modified bill developed by the Diet members did not thoroughly derive learnings in the same way, due to cognitive and political reasons, and specifically, the issue of limiting social burden was not addressed..
43. Nugroho Agung Pambudi, Kenshi Itaoka, Andrew John Chapman, Nguyen Dinh Hoa, Natsuki Yamakawa, Biomass energy in Japan
Current status and future potential, International Journal of Smart Grid and Clean Energy, 10.12720/sgce.6.2.119-126, 6, 2, 119-126, 2017.04, The Fukushima accident has pushed Japan to further develop its renewables initiative, particularly the biomass energy commodity. Their projection for the 2030 energy mix includes a biomass share of 4%. Further, a policy was introduced in 2002 called the Biomass Nippon Strategy. This was revised in 2006, fortifying the creation of Biomass Towns. Another major step forward came in 2009 with the Basic Act for the Promotion of Biomass Utilization. New goals were set with the introduction of the Basic Energy Plan. To meet the target, an agenda for the supply of domestic and imported biomass is needed. Domestic supply, such as wood pellets and agricultural residue has a small future potential. However for import scemes including wood and Palm Kernel Shell (PKS) from Indonesia and Malaysia are currently in place. There are also several future potential sources of biomass as yet untapped. In the future, the supply of biomass energy commodity could be increased to meet the target of 4% of the energy mix including comoddities such as biodiesel from sunflower, Jatropha Curcas as well as EFB (Empty fruit bunch), Sugarcane, Bagasse, Algae, Cotton seed, Coconut oil, Coconut Shell..
44. Nugroho Agung Pambudi, Kenshi Itaoka, Andrew John Chapman, Atsushi Kurosawa, Etsushi Kato, Industrial Carbon Capture Storage (CSS) Model Using Times-Japan Framework, 9th International Conference on Applied Energy, ICAE 2017 Energy Procedia, 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.12.193, 142, 2525-2533, 2017.01, Carbon Capture and storage may contribute as much as one-fifth of the necessary reductions to meet the IEA's emissions goals for 2050. CCS is one of the only technologies that reduces the carbon impact of "business as usual," preventing CO2 from burning fossil fuels and certain industries from entering the atmosphere. Japan has geological, regulatory, and financial advantages encouraging investment in CCS and several demonstration projects are already underway. Using a Markel-Times system model, long-term road map results are presented for Japan's future energy mix and CCS capacity. In the short term until 2030, import prices of fossil fuels are expected to increase while renewable solar and wind power will grow rapidly. The role of nuclear power is more debatable in the wake of the Fukushima disaster, but the projection anticipates at least some nuclear power to be used in the coming decades. Two industries are modeled for CCS, steel production and cement manufacture. Launched by start-up investments, CCS is expected to begin industrially from 2015 and could grow to capture and store more than 90 PJ of carbon from the steel industry per year and another 60 PJ from cement factories every five years..
45. Andrew J. Chapman, Timothy Fraser, Kenshi Itaoka, Hydrogen import pathway comparison framework incorporating cost and social preference
Case studies from Australia to Japan, International Journal of Energy Research, 10.1002/er.3807, 41, 14, 2374-2391, 2017, Recent proposals to produce and import hydrogen from Australia to Japan for electricity generation raise questions about how to compare the costs and feasibilities of different hydrogen import pathways. This paper establishes a framework for the comparison of technological, economic, and social costs and feasibility. The framework is then applied to 3 potential production and import case studies. First, a benchmark case study is considered which uses Australian brown coal from the Latrobe Valley combined with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology. The second and third comparative case studies use renewable energy and electrolysis near port facilities in Karratha, Western Australia, using solar power exclusively as the renewable energy source, and Gladstone, Queensland, using a combination of onshore wind and solar-based generation. The study finds that comparative pilot project generation costs for the brown coal pathway are between approximately 5.9 and 15.4 yen/kWh cheaper than for solar and/or wind-based pathways. However, limitations of scaling up CCS, a limited brown coal supply, long-term reducing costs of renewables, and the prospect to develop complementary renewable infrastructure make a strong counterargument for investment in solar and wind pathways as an alternative to brown coal and CCS..
46. Andrew John Chapman, Benjamin McLellan, Tetsuo Tezuka, Proposing an evaluation framework for energy policy making incorporating equity
Applications in Australia, Energy Research and Social Science, 10.1016/j.erss.2016.06.021, 21, 54-69, 2016.11, The sustainability of energy policy performance is determined by a combination of environmental, economic and equity impacts on society. To date, analysis of the equity impacts of energy policy have been largely overlooked in favour of environmental and economic impacts. As equity is an important issue within sustainability and energy justice considerations, this paper sets out to provide a framework and methodology which allows an assessment of both policy effectiveness in terms of an environmental and economic evaluation, followed up by an assessment of resultant quantitative equity impacts on society, in order to engender a holistic policy sustainability evaluation. Following an investigation of prominent energy policy equity issues and Australian peoples preferences towards equity, multiple scenarios are evaluated for effectiveness within the Australian National Electricity Market. The results of this evaluation provide an evidence base for the development of an alternative energy scenario which addresses the identified equity issues whilst meeting policy goals. The equity evaluation demonstrates the comparative equity resultant from each scenario and identifies the apportioning of burden according to income level. The proposed evaluation processes allow the policy maker to develop policies sensitive to both effectiveness and equity, and can be applied in energy justice conscious jurisdictions..
47. Benjamin C. McLellan, Andrew John Chapman, Kazumasu Aoki, Geography, urbanization and lock-in – considerations for sustainable transitions to decentralized energy systems, Journal of Cleaner Production, 10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.12.092, 128, 77-96, 2016.08, The importance of moving towards sustainable energy systems is critical to achieving societal sustainability. Transitions theory is a useful approach to look at the potential and limitations of systemic transitions, and has been applied in a number of alternative contexts. In the current study, we examine transitions theory and its implications for the progress of decentralized energy systems in Japan in the period after the Fukushima accident of 2011. Empirical data from a targeted nation-wide survey is used to examine the progress and change in consumer preference and behavior since the disaster, as possible evidence for the potential transition paths likely to be occurring. Importantly, this study utilizes data that examines a spectrum of urban–rural and disaster–non-disaster areas in order to explore whether any differences in response patterns were present. Results indicate that although the desire of stakeholders has been to change the energy system, there are barriers to transformation. Variation between rural and urban sites and between disaster-affected and unaffected areas was examined, indicating that (at least under the chosen classification) there was surprisingly little difference. The results have implications for understanding transitions at a much broader level, and imply that, if the empirical data is a useful indicator, Japan is within a locked-in or reorganization transition. In order to move to a more radical conversion type change a new approach is likely to be required to nurture niche innovations effectively..
48. Andrew John Chapman, Benjamin McLellan, Tetsuo Tezuka, Residential solar PV policy
An analysis of impacts, successes and failures in the Australian case, Renewable Energy, 10.1016/j.renene.2015.09.061, 86, 1265-1279, 2016.02, Residential or 'rooftop' solar PV can play an important role in providing renewable energy, thus offsetting fossil fuel based generation and associated greenhouse gas emissions. In Australia, subsidies are offered to encourage the deployment of residential PV in the form of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) and Feed-in Tariffs (FiTs). This paper provides a literature review of existing work which assesses renewable energy in Australia, and delves deeper into a residential PV specific analysis of available data across the five criteria of installation, employment, market maturity, FiT settings and environmental outcomes to assess successes, failures and impacts of Australian residential PV policies between 2001 and 2012. This analysis identifies overall success with regard to environmental and deployment goals, and limited success in the goal of renewable energy industry promotion, which is devoid of indigenous manufacturing. In addition, impacts, including the dominance of the FiT as the initial stimulus for rapid PV deployment, cost impacts on electricity bills for various FiT settings, and the dependence of PV employment numbers on the continuation of the FiT are also identified. Finally, inequitable outcomes due to the FiT, such as cross-subsidisation from non-solar to solar households are also detailed..