慢性疾患発症リスクの予測モデル/ツール開発とその評価に関する研究
キーワード：リスク予測モデル、疫学、慢性疾患
2018.04.
| 本田 貴紀（ほんだ たかのり） | データ更新日：2023.11.22 |
主な研究テーマ
通勤行動と慢性疾患
キーワード：身体活動
2018.04～2022.03.
キーワード：身体活動
2018.04～2022.03.
身体活動と代謝性疾患の疫学
キーワード：身体活動 疫学
2015.04.
キーワード：身体活動 疫学
2015.04.
地域住民における栄養疫学
キーワード：疫学
2018.04.
キーワード：疫学
2018.04.
身体活動・運動による長期の認知機能保護
キーワード：疫学
2017.12.
キーワード：疫学
2017.12.
従事しているプロジェクト研究
生涯発症リスク予測を含む心血管病リスク総合評価ツールの開発と実装に向けた検証
2022.04.
2022.04.
活動的な通勤による糖尿病発症予防の効果推計に関する前向きコホート研究
2018.04～2022.03, 代表者：本田貴紀, 九州大学.
2018.04～2022.03, 代表者：本田貴紀, 九州大学.
地域住民における中年期から高齢期にかけての長期の運動歴と認知機能低下に関する研究―前向きコホート研究―
2017.12～2019.02, 代表者：本田貴紀, 九州大学, 九州大学.
2017.12～2019.02, 代表者：本田貴紀, 九州大学, 九州大学.
研究業績
主要原著論文
| 1. | Honda T, Ohara T, Yoshida D, Shibata M, Ishida Y, Furuta Y, Oishi E, Hirakawa Y, Sakata S, Hata J, Nakao T, Ninomiya T, Development of a dementia prediction model for primary care: The Hisayama Study. , Alzheimer’s Dement (Amst), 10.1002/dad2.12221., 13, e12221, 2021.05, Introduction: We aimed to develop a risk prediction model for incident dementia using predictors that are available in primary-care settings. Methods: A total of 795 subjects aged 65 years or over were prospectively followed-up from 1988 to 2012. A Cox proportional-hazards regression was used to develop a multivariable prediction model. The developed model was translated into a simplified scoring system based on the beta-coefficient. The discrimination of the model was assessed by Harrell's C statistic, and the calibration was assessed by a calibration plot. Results: During the follow-up period, 364 subjects developed dementia. In the multivariable model, age, female sex, low education, leanness, hypertension, diabetes, history of stroke, current smoking, and sedentariness were selected as predictors. The developed model and simplified score showed good discrimination and calibration. Discussion: The developed risk prediction model is feasible and practically useful in primary-care settings to identify individuals at high risk for future dementia. Keywords: dementia; general population; primary prevention; prospective study; risk prediction model.. |
| 2. | Takanori Honda, Tomoyuki Ohara, Masakazu Shinohara, Jun Hata, Ryuji Toh, Daigo Yoshida, Mao Shibata, Tatsuro Ishida, Yoichiro Hirakawa, Yasuhiro Irino, Satoko Sakata, Kazuhiro Uchida, Takanari Kitazono, Shigenobu Kanba, Ken Ichi Hirata, Toshiharu Ninomiya, Serum elaidic acid concentration and risk of dementia The Hisayama Study, Neurology, 10.1212/WNL.0000000000008464, 93, 22, e2053-e2064, 2019.11, [URL], OBJECTIVE: The associations between trans fatty acids and dementia have been unclear. We investigated the prospective association between serum elaidic acid (trans 18:1 n-9) levels, as an objective biomarker for industrial trans fat, and incident dementia and its subtypes. METHODS: In total, 1,628 Japanese community residents aged 60 and older without dementia were followed prospectively from when they underwent a screening examination in 2002-2003 to November 2012 (median 10.3 years, interquartile range 7.2-10.4 years). Serum elaidic acid levels were measured using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry and divided into quartiles. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratios for all-cause dementia, Alzheimer disease (AD), and vascular dementia by serum elaidic acid levels. RESULTS: During the follow-up, 377 participants developed some type of dementia (247 AD, 102 vascular dementia). Higher serum elaidic acid levels were significantly associated with greater risk of developing all-cause dementia (p for trend = 0.003) and AD (p for trend = 0.02) after adjustment for traditional risk factors. These associations remained significant after adjustment for dietary factors, including total energy intake and intakes of saturated and polyunsaturated fatty acids (both p for trend |
| 3. | Honda T, Yoshida D, Hata J, Hirakawa Y, Ishida Y, Shibata M, Sakata S, Kitazono T, Ninomiya Toshiharu, Development and validation of modified risk prediction models for cardiovascular disease and its subtypes: The Hisayama Study, Atherosclerosis, 10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2018.10.014, 85, 38-44, 2018.10, Background and aims: Predicting cardiovascular events is of practical benefit for disease prevention. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate an updated risk prediction model for cardiovascular diseases and its subtypes. Methods: A total of 2,462 community residents aged 40-84 were followed up for 24 years. A Cox’s proportional hazards regression model was used to develop risk prediction models for cardiovascular diseases, and separately for stroke and coronary heart diseases. The risk assessment ability of the developed model was evaluated, and a bootstrapping method was used for internal validation. The predicted risk was translated into a simplified scoring system. A decision curve analysis was used to evaluate clinical usefulness. Results: The multivariable model for cardiovascular diseases included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, hemoglobin A1c, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking habits, and regular exercise as predictors. The models for stroke and for coronary heart diseases incorporated both shared and unique variables. The developed models showed good discrimination with little evidence of overfitting (optimism-corrected Harrell’s C statistics 0.726-0.777) and calibrations (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, p = 0.44 – 0.90). The decision curve analysis revealed that the predicted risk-based decision-making would have higher net benefit than either a CVD intervention strategy for all individuals or no individuals. Conclusions: The developed risk prediction models showed a good performance and satisfactory internal validity, which may help in understanding individual risk and setting personalized goals, and in promoting risk stratification in public health strategies for CVD prevention.. |
学会活動
学会大会・会議・シンポジウム等における役割
2022.09～2022.09, 第77回日本体力医学会大会, 座長.
2022.09～2022.09, 第77回日本体力医学会大会, シンポジスト.
2021.09～2021.09, 第76回日本体力医学会大会, 座長.
2021.09～2021.09, 第76回日本体力医学会大会, シンポジスト.
2021.06～2021.06, 第23回日本運動疫学会学術集会, 座長.
受賞
2022 PCN Reviewer Award, 日本精神神経学会, 2022.06.
優秀発表賞, 日本運動疫学会 第16回学術集会, 2013.09.
優秀演題賞, 第23回日本未病システム学会学術総会, 2016.11.
最優秀演題賞, 第24回日本未病システム学会学術総会, 2017.11.
最優秀演題賞, 第25回日本未病システム学会学術総会, 2018.11.
優秀発表, 第83回日本循環器学会学術集会, 2019.03.
最優秀演題賞, 第24回日本未病システム学会学術集会, 2017.11.
優秀演題賞, 第23回日本未病システム学会学術集会, 2016.11.
優秀発表賞, 第16回運動疫学研究会学術集会, 2013.09.
研究資金
科学研究費補助金の採択状況(文部科学省、日本学術振興会)
2022年度～2025年度, 若手研究, 代表, 生涯発症リスク予測を含む心血管病リスク総合評価ツールの開発と実装に向けた検証.
2018年度～2021年度, 若手研究, 代表, 活動的な通勤による糖尿病発症予防の効果推計に関する前向きコホート研究.
2017年度～2019年度, 基盤研究(C), 分担, 地域在住高齢者の客観的身体活動・座位行動と要介護認定との関連：8年間の前向き研究.
2017年度～2019年度, 基盤研究(C), 分担, 地域高齢住民におけるサルコペニアと認知症発症との関連：久山町研究.
2015年度～2016年度, 特別研究員奨励費, 代表, 座位行動が肥満および糖・脂質代謝指標に与える影響に関する前向きコホート研究.
競争的資金(受託研究を含む)の採択状況
2021年度～2022年度, 公益信託 日本動脈硬化予防研究基金研究助成, 代表, 動脈硬化性心血管疾患の生涯発症確率を簡便に予測するためのリスク予測ツールの開発.
2017年度～2018年度, 公益財団法人 明治安田厚生事業団 若手研究者のための健康科学研究助成, 代表, 地域住民における中年期から高齢期にかけての長期の運動歴と認知機能低下に関する研究―前向きコホート研究―.
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